Forecast: Salt Lake Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Salt Lake Area Mountains

Issued by Nikki Champion on
Wednesday morning, January 11, 2023

The avalanche danger is HIGH at all upper elevations and at mid-elevation aspects facing west through north through southeast where heavy snowfall and strong winds have created very dangerous avalanche conditions. New snow and wind-drifted snow avalanches may step down into older facets, leading to large and destructive avalanches.

At all lower elevations and mid-elevation aspects facing southwest, and south where the persistent weak layer is less likely to cause avalanches the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE.

Travel in the highest elevation terrain is not recommended and cautious route finding should be used when traveling at mid and low elevations. Avoid travel on slopes steeper than 30 degrees or below steep terrain.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Weather and Snow

Overnight mountain locations reported 7-20" of new snow and 1-2.3" of water. Storm totals are up to 18-32" of snow. Currently, it is still snowing in the mountains, but the peak snowfall rates have passed.

This morning, trailhead temperatures are in the mid-teens to low 20's F while the upper elevation temperatures are in the low teens F. Winds have transitioned to the northwest and are blowing 30-40 gusting to 50 MPH at the mid-elevation ridgelines. At the upper elevation ridgelines, winds are blowing 50-60 mph gusting near 100 mph.

Today will bring continued cloudy skies and snowfall this morning, before tapering off this afternoon. Temperatures will climb into the mid-20s F and winds will remain elevated, but begin to decrease throughout the day, blowing from the northwest 15-25 mph at mid-elevation ridgelines, and blowing 20-30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph at the highest ridgelines. We could see another 3-6" of accumulation before the high pressure moves into the area for Thursday and Friday before a more active pattern returns.

Overall water totals are impressive for the entire state, with snow water equivalent percent close to 200% in most areas.

Recent Avalanches

Remote sensors reported widespread natural activity late last night during peak snowfall rates, and into the early morning hours.

In the backcountry, multiple users observers triggered sensitive soft slabs within the new snow and wind-drifted snow 1-2' deep and up to 50' wide on a variety of aspects and elevations. One avalanche was reported that could have stepped down into the old facets near the ground or another deeper storm layer in Upper White Pine, in a zone called Dog Dish. Appears to be a hard slab avalanche that failed on a NE aspect near 9800'.

Natural new snow avalanche that likely stepped down. (B. Torrey) Find full observation HERE.

Find all recent avalanches HERE.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

With a huge bump in northwest winds overnight, gusts up to 100 mph, and so much soft snow available for transport, you are likely to find sensitive slabs of wind-drifted snow on all mid and upper-elevation slopes. The new soft slabs will be most pronounced on lee-ward facing slopes, but elevated winds can load any aspect because winds swirl and change direction as they pass through the mountains, this is known as cross-loading.

Look for cracking, collapsing, and rounded pillows of new snow and avoid steep terrain where you could trigger them.

Any wind-drifted avalanche may step down into a deeper buried weak layer resulting in a larger avalanche.

Example of the soft slab avalanches of wind drifted snow you could find today. Brighton Hill - B. Nalli. Find full observation HERE.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Storm totals of 18-32" of new snow will create both sensitive soft slabs of new snow and fast, long-running sluffs on all aspects at mid and upper elevations. While new snow avalanches can be consequential on their own - the primary concern is if they step down into the buried persistent weak layer.

I suspect at lower elevations where it is warmer the new snow is bonding quite well to the old snow surface.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

The deeply-buried persistent weak layer (PWL) from November continues to gain strength and it has become harder to initiate an avalanche on this layer. It may take a significant trigger - this could include a large cornice fall, multiple riders on a slope at a time, or another avalanche adding more weight to the snowpack, and stepping down to trigger this layer. Any avalanche triggered on this weak faceted snow would be 2-7' deep.

Areas where you are more likely to trigger this PWL, are shallow thinner spots, rocky ridges, and mid-elevation terrain such as Millcreek Canyon, Lambs, and Parley's Canyon areas.

This report from Parley's Canyon still shows weak faceted snow buried under 3' of harder-density snow.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

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