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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Nikki Champion
Issued by Nikki Champion on
Friday morning, February 25, 2022
Areas of CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exist on steep mid and upper elevation slopes facing west through north through east where fresh wind drifts and new snow sit atop of the weak faceted snow. With every new snowfall event, and bump in windspeeds the likelihood of triggering an avalanche within the weak faceted snow increases. These types of avalanches are what we call unmanageable as you can trigger them from a distance. These are prime accident conditions.
A MODERATE danger exists for all other freshly wind-loaded slopes.
The remaining aspects at all lower elevations have a LOW danger.
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Weather and Snow
This morning, skies are overcast and it is lightly snowing. The Provo mountains may have gotten a dusting of snow overnight. Mountain temperatures are hovering above 0°F this morning, with trailhead temperatures near 10 °F and upper elevation ridgeline temperatures sitting near 4 °F. The westerly winds have begun to pick up this morning. Winds are currently blowing 10-20 mph with gusts near 30 mph at the highest ridgelines.
Today, the skies will remain overcast. The Provo area mountains could pick up trace amounts - 2" of new snow by this afternoon. Temperatures will rise into the upper teens °F, and the westerly winds will remain elevated this morning before diminishing into the afternoon. Winds will blow 5-15 mph at mid-elevations, and 15-25 mph at upper elevations. The highest gusts at upper elevation ridgelines could reach 45 mph.
The weather is looking clear and warm for the weekend.
Recent Avalanches
Yesterday, there were no new avalanches reported in the backcountry. We did great a great avalanche observation, of multiple natural loose dry avalanches that ran on Timpanogos on February 23rd. These avalanches avalanches caused loud audible booms, and created enough snow to carry and bury a person. See full observation HERE.
While we haven't had as much activity reported in Provo, the activity noted below in the central Wasatch mirrors what I expect in the Provo mountains. Throughout the week, we have had four avalanches reported in the backcountry that failed on the new snow/old snow interface. In other words, we have *just* enough new snow and *just* enough wind to start to develop a slab over our widely advertised Jan/Feb drought layer. Since Tuesday we've only added more snow and more wind.
Neffs Canyon: 7400' NW facing. A skier cut the slope and triggered a 10" deep and 30' wide pocket.
Kessler Peak of BCC: 9600' NE facing. A skier collapsed the slope and triggered a 12" deep and 20' wide pocket while ascending the Patterson ridge and was nearly caught in the slide.
Broads Fork of BCC: 9400' NE facing A skier remotely triggered a 10" deep and 40' wide from 15' away
Mill B South of BCC: 8500' East facing A skier unintentionally triggered an 18" deep and 20' wide pocket in steep rocky terrain
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
These are prime conditions for backcountry accidents and close calls...
Over the past few days, we have begun seeing soft slab avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer (the Jan/Feb drought layer of facets) on the Northern end of the compass. With every bump in wind speed and/or new snowfall event added to our fragile snowpack, we continue to wait for the weak facets from the past two months to become unglued. While we have yet to see things become fully unglued, we have begun seeing avalanches failing 10-18" down, within that layer, and know that human triggered avalanches will continue to be possible today.
Given the new snowfall, elevated winds, and poor snowpack structure I would avoid any west through north through east facing terrain steeper than 30 degrees, with any steep terrain above or attached to it. Today is not the day to push it. This persistent weak layer is not going anywhere fast, and these avalanches will be tricky, unusual, dangerous, and widely variable....as the snowpack has become widely variable over the past two months.
The challenging part right now is figuring out where a more cohesive slab sits atop of the weak faceted grains. In areas that have not received enough wind, or enough snow there still may not be a slab formed. As we continue to add more snow, and more wind, this slab is only becoming more cohesive and widespread increasing the likelihood of triggered a large avalanche. Currently, with so much spatial variability, the best way to handle it is avoidance.
The good news: With this past week's new snowfall, the riding conditions have greatly improved on all aspects. So if you are going out today, slope angle and aspect are going to be the name of the game.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The new low-density snow combined with a few days of elevated winds will have created some soft slabs of wind drifted snow at upper elevations, and even some mid-elevation terrain features such as sub-ridges and gullies. These wind slabs will be shallow and overall small in size, but these new wind drifts are sitting atop weak faceted snow or a firm snow surface, which will make them very sensitive and cause them to run far and fast. Look for any obvious signs of wind drifted snow, such as hollow sounding or pillow-shaped snow, and avoid those slopes.
Elevated winds can deposit snow on all aspects but give west through north through east extra caution, as triggering an avalanche that initially fails in the wind-drifted snow is most suspect to step down deeper and fail into the weak faceted snow from January and February.
In any wind-sheltered areas, some new soft snow may still be found. In those areas, you may find still find some lingering fast-running sluffs or sensitive storm slabs. Look for signs of new snow instabilities such as cracking, and collapsing.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
CLICK HERE FOR MORE GENERAL INFO AND FAQ
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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