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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Thursday morning, January 6, 2022
The avalanche danger is MODERATE on all steep, north facing slopes where triggering a large, deep, and very dangerous avalanche failing on a buried persistent weak layer remains possible. The danger increases with elevation and slopes with evidence of recent wind loading are more suspect.
A MODERATE avalanche danger also exists for smaller avalanches involving recent deposits of wind drifted snow. Recent wind slabs have formed primarily on slopes facing the north side of the compass but they may be found on all aspects.
Though the likelihood of triggering a deep and dangerous avalanche is trending downward, keep in mind that most avalanche accidents occur during the period when the danger begins to move between Considerable and Moderate or vice versa. Keep your guard up. A triggered, large avalanche would be unsurvivable.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Road Conditions: The dirt road to Geyser Pass Trailhead is plowed, but snow packed and slick. AWD and good tires recommended.
Grooming: Trees are cut out and packing has commenced. Look for full grooming later in the week,
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Base Depth in Gold Basin 45"
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
Storm Totals in Gold Basin
Wind Station on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
NWS Weather Forecast
Snowpack
The main thing that stood out in our travels in Gold Basin on Tuesday, was the effects of the wind. Blowing and drifting snow continued to load upper elevation north, and particularly northeast aspects. Cross loading has also occurred on a variety of aspects. Exposed areas were scoured and textured, and thin wind crusts have formed on many surfaces. Good, settled powder can still be found in sheltered areas below treeline.
The dust has settled from last Friday's avalanche cycle which entailed dozens of deep, hard slab avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer of of sugary, faceted snow at the base of the snow pack. Stability tests indicate that an avalanche of this size would be harder to trigger now, but if you did trigger one it would be a monster. Likely trigger points include shallow, rocky areas, lines along slope margins, or on steep convexities. Wth avalanches of this magnitude remaining a real possiblity, I would give things a little more time before stepping out on to steep, northerly facing terrain.
Aerial observer Chris Benson was out flying around on Tuesday and sent in this observation with pictures noting the effects of the wind. Here is the complete list of recent observations.
Westerly winds on Tuesday caused continuous wind loading on upper elevation, north through southeast aspects. Brian Hays photo.
Recent Avalanches
Observers continue to report widespread, deep, and very large natural avalanches on northerly aspects from last Friday's storm event. Aerial observer Chris Benson spotted this large avalanche in Beaver Basin on Tuseday. Go here for the complete list of avalanches from the December 31 cycle.
Beaver Basin avalanche. Chris Benson photo.
Horse Creek Avalanche. Brian Murdock photo.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A heavy load of recent, and wind drifted snow has been added to a pre-existing slab on top of a persistent weak layer of loose, sugary, faceted snow at the base of the snowpack. This has resulted in widespread natural avalanche activity on northerly aspects. The recent load has provided quite a thump, and as the dust settles so to speak, we should see a trend towards greater stability. With the magnitude of these avalanches, however, we need to give things some time. It is still possible if not likely to trigger one of these monsters. Likely trigger points include shallow, rocky areas, along slope margins, or on steep convexities.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Recent westerly winds have created fresh deposits of wind drifted snow on slopes facing NW through SE. Cross loading may have also resulted in wind slab formation on a varierty of aspects. In some cases they may be found adjacent to bare slopes where a subtle terrain feature such as a subridge or gully wall has caused deposition on the leeward side. Wind slabs are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance, or hollow sound and feel. Cracking is a sign of instability. On northerly aspects, wind drifted snow has added stress to older slabs on top of a buried persistent weak layer and dangerous, human triggered avalanches 3'-5' deep are possible. Avoid steep, wind drifted slopes.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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