The issue is simple today, as the snowfall intensity increases, the avalanche danger is going to increase as well. The cold front moving in this morning is predicted to have periods of very high snowfall rates, as well as overall high snowfall totals (10-16" of snow by Sunday). All of this new snow is going to have a variety of excellent bed surfaces to slide on and once the snowfall begins, I expect to see shallow new snow avalanches in the backcountry today.

With the generally warm temperatures, I expect the new snow to be fairly cohesive and should break as a shallow soft slab, but, with so many supportable bed surfaces, fast running sluffs are also likely today, especially in the upper elevations. The type of avalanche will come down to how quickly the new snow bonds, versus how quickly the snow is falling from the sky. Watch for signs of instability such as cracking and sluffing. Even a small slide can have serious consequences in big, steep terrain or if you’re above cliffs.

Today, the sensitivity of the new snow largely depends on the rate of snowfall. During higher rates of snowfall (greater than 1 inch per hour) avalanches will be easier to trigger. Periods of snowfall exceeding 2 inches per hour are possible during the day today, especially late this morning and early afternoon. During those periods of high snowfall rates, small natural avalanches may be possible. Pay attention to changing weather and increased snowfall rates.

This morning the winds are cranking, with gusts near 60 mph and expected to increase to 75 mph. These high southwesterly winds may create fresh wind drifts on any aspect at the mid and upper elevations. These wind drifts will be generally shallow and isolated to terrain features that allow for drifting new snow to accumulate, such as ridges, sub-ridges and gullies.