Forecast: Salt Lake Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Salt Lake Area Mountains

Issued by Trent Meisenheimer on
Wednesday morning, February 10, 2021

The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on steep slopes facing west through north through southeast at the upper elevations. The danger is also CONSIDERABLE on mid-elevation steep terrain that faces northwest through east. Recent snowfall and strong winds have overloaded the snowpack on many slopes at the mid and upper elevations.

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist. Any natural or human-triggered avalanche can be up to 5' deep, several-hundred feet wide, and likely unsurvivable.

The remaining mid and upper elevation aspects have a MODERATE avalanche danger. Below 8,000', there is a LOW danger.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Special Announcements

We are filled with grief to report four avalanche fatalities that occurred Saturday in the Wilson Glade of upper Mill Creek Canyon. The avalanche involved two separate parties. Our deepest condolences go out to the friends and families involved. Our deepest gratitude goes out to Wasatch Backcountry Rescue, Intermountain Lifeflight, the Department of Public Safety, the United States Forest Service, and Brighton, Solitude and Alta Ski Patrols for providing resources and support during this tragic accident.

We investigated the accident Sunday; our preliminary report has been published. Please be patient and know the UAC staff is working around the clock to get the final report done.

Weather and Snow

The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued a Winter Storm Watch in effect from Thursday evening through Friday. A winter storm watch is a lot like an avalanche watch. Meaning when we (UAC) issue an avalanche watch, we anticipate that if the weather stays on track, the avalanche danger will rise, and we will transition from a watch to a warning. So, if our weekend storm stays on track, you can expect the NWS to transition from a watch to a warning for the winter storm. I tried looking into the storm details, but it seems to be all over the map, from 10" of snow to 75" of snow in the next 7 days. Stay tuned, I suppose.

In the past 24 hrs, the mountains have picked up a trace to 3" (0.01-0.14 water) of snow in places. This morning we will remain under a moist westerly flow aloft that will bring low clouds and some snow showers with minor accumulations throughout the day. Winds are currently blowing from the westerly direction with speeds of 20-25 mph, gusting 40 mph at 11,000'. If you lose some elevation, the winds back off dramatically, with most stations reporting 5-10 mph with the occasional gust into the 20's mph. Mountain temperatures will be on the warmer side today, with temperatures climbing into the 20's °F at 10,000' and the low 30's °F at 8,500'.

Recent Avalanches

For the first time in a long time, we had no new avalanches reported from the backcountry.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Dangerous avalanches 2-5' deep and hundreds of feet wide are still possible on steep mid and upper elevation slopes. These conditions will be most pronounced on steep northwest to southeast facing slopes. If an area has any signs of wind loading, we could see even deeper avalanches breaking, up to 5-10' deep, that initially fail in the wind drifted snow and step down into the weak faceted snow near the ground. Either way, these avalanches are likely to be unsurvivable.

A few words of caution:

Signs of instability may not be present: you may or may not see or experience shooting cracks or audible whumping.
Tracks on the slope offer zero signs of stability. Avalanches will take out multiple existing tracks.
You can trigger these avalanches from a distance or below.
Any fresh wind slab or new snow avalanche may step down into this older layering of weak snow.

Bottom Line: There is no outsmarting this problem - avoidance is the answer. If you're heading out into the backcountry today, be sure to stick to terrain that's under 30° degrees in slope steepness with nothing steep above or adjacent to you. Dangerous avalanche conditions exist, and human triggered avalanches are likely.

Particularly dangerous areas would include Snake Creek, upper American Fork, upper Mill Creek, and much of the Park City ridgeline.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

The winds have been relentless over the past few days, mainly blowing from a westerly direction. Days of sustained high winds can deposit snow around terrain features on almost any aspect, called cross-loading. For this reason, I would expect to find stubborn slabs of wind drifted snow at all upper and mid-elevation slopes, especially along with terrain features such as ridgelines, sub ridges, and gullies.

Approach each new drift with caution; cracking and collapsing may not be evident today. Look for any slopes with signs of wind drifted snow and avoiding those slopes.

Pay attention to cornices: Many ridgelines now have growing cornices. We have seen a few cornice-triggered avalanches now. Be sure to give cornices a wide berth as they typically break much further back than expected and could trigger a much larger avalanche below if they fail.

General Announcements

Please visit this website with information about Responsible Winter Recreation by the Utah Office of Outdoor Recreation.

CLICK HERE FOR MORE GENERAL INFO AND FAQ

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

Backcountry Emergency Procedures