Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Wednesday morning, January 6, 2021
Tuesday's storm changed the landscape, creating sketchy avalanche conditions in the western Uinta's. For today... once triggered, avalanches will break deeper and wider than you might expect, resulting in a dangerous slide with severe consequences.
In the wind zone, at and above treeline, you'll find CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger. Human triggered avalanches are LIKELY on steep, wind drifted slopes. Steep terrain facing the north half of the compass, and particularly slopes with an easterly component to its aspect are most suspect and should be avoided.
Lower elevation slopes offer MODERATE avalanche danger and human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE on steep, shady slopes.
Here's your exit strategy-
LOW avalanche danger is found on low elevation slopes, particularly those facing south, but snow cover is super thin.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Andy and I installed the Are You Beeping avalanche transceiver checkpoint at the Mill Hollow trailhead. It's super easy to use.... you just slide by it and check that your gear is working properly before hitting snow.
Thanks to the generous support of our local resorts, Ski Utah, and Backcountry, discount lift tickets are now available. Support the UAC while you ski at the resorts this season. Tickets are available here.
Weather and Snow
Nowcast-
And then... it snowed! Yesterday's storm delivered a solid 8" across the range with Trial Lake stacking up nearly 12" of snow with 1" of H2O. Skies are clear this morning, temperatures in the single digits and low teens, and northwest winds blow 15-25 along the high ridges. It's looking more encouraging out there as average snow depths creep into the three foot range. And while conditions are slowly improving, it's still low tide in the Uinta's and travel is sorta limited to road rides and grassy slopes.
Forecast-
A beautiful day is on tap for us with clear skies, temperatures climbing into the upper 20's, and west-northwest winds blowing in the 20's along the high peaks.
Futurecast-
A weak storm is slated for Thursday and another on Saturday.
Looking for real-time temps, snow, or wind?
Click here and then on the "western Uinta" tab for western Uinta specific, weather station network.
Recent Avalanches
Shaun and Westin D found all the red flags and very reactive snow yesterday. They're some of the best in the business and have a few thoughts and reflections found here.
Looking for more avy info and trip reports? Well then, simply click here.
Remember.... solid decision making is paramount because our front-line health care workers are maxed out. So, let's collectively think about our decisions and the consequences that may have on others.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Triggered low on the slope yesterday this is the common characteristic of our avalanche dragon right now.
The writing is on the wall and it's pretty clear... as a matter of fact, a series of red flags waved in our faces yesterday. Thunderous collapses, shooting cracks, and the biggest sign of avalanches.... AVALANCHES!
So here's the deal- the snowpack is complex, we have a persistent weak layer in the mid portion of the pack, and this fragile structure just experienced a rapid change.
No, the range didn't come unglued, in fact, many slopes hang in the balance waiting for a trigger like us to roll along and knock the legs out from underneath. This is the setup where the wheels come off the bus because we can trigger slides from the flats, low on the slope, from a distance, or from adjacent slopes. This is the kind of avalanche dragon where we pull the entire log pile down on top of us, even if we're playing on low angle terrain. But you don't have to ride blind... so, tweak small test slopes, looking for and listening to signs of unstable snow like whoomping sounds and sudden collapses of the snowpack or shooting cracks in front of your skis, board, or sled. And of course the biggest clue of all... recent avalanches, especially on the same types of slopes you wanna ride on.
A couple years ago, my colleague Trent and I demonstrated how a similar snowpack reacts to our additional weight. We don't need to be on the slope, just connected to it... we've got the same setup right now.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Winds are always the game changer on the eastern front and yesterday's winds followed that successful business model... they were all over the map, forming fresh, sensitive slabs on nearly every aspect of the compass. While I think things settled out slightly, and won't be quite as touchy today, we still need to avoid any steep wind drifted slope not only along the leeward side of ridges, but also around terrain features like chutes and gullies. In either case, it's an easy and mostly manageable avalanche problem to avoid by simply steering clear of any fat, rounded piece of snow, particularly if it sounds hollow like a drum. And remember... our snowpack is super shallow and triggering even a small slide can take you for a body-bruising ride through rocks and stumps barely hidden under the thin snowpack.
Additional Information
Mark Staples teamed up and Ski-Doo athlete Steve Martin, and they had a great and very informative ride in the Whitney Basin. Whilst out and about, they remotely triggered a small slide on the way to investigating a large, moose triggered avalanche. In the viddy above they've got some great advice on how to ride when avalanche danger is elevated and snow depths lean.
I'll update this forecast by 7:00 AM tomorrow, Thursday January 7th.
Your observations are import, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community based program
General Announcements
If you see or trigger an avalanche or just wanna let me know what you're seeing you can reach me directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected]
The information in this forecast is from the US Forest Service which is solely responsible for its content.