Observation: Provo

Observation Date
1/1/2021
Observer Name
B
Region
Provo
Location Name or Route
Lower Mineral Basin
Weather
Sky
Clear
Wind Speed
Calm
Weather Comments
Cold day in the shade: -8.5 c
Snow Characteristics
Snow Surface Conditions
Powder
Faceted Loose
Wind Crust
Damp
Snow Characteristics Comments
Dense settled powder riding on wind sheltered areas. Mix of variable conditions due to recent winds and solar.
Red Flags
Red Flags
Cracking
Collapsing
Poor Snowpack Structure
Red Flags Comments
Slab appears to be consolidating/stiffening/settling and becoming more dense/cohesive preventing the widespread collapsing that was occurring earlier in the week. It appears that in the areas with consistent HS of 90+ (in the shady protected aspects) the slab is now bridging the weak layers. This bridging is not something that indicates stability and reasons to ride steep slopes. Boot pen of 8 to 10 cm and ski pen 25 cm add up to validate the fact that the slab is now supportable in some areas, but the possibility of riding an entire slope with no shallower/thinner areas is a gamble and unlikely. Along with this, in areas traveled today the entire snowpack continues to decay/rot/facet. Sandboxing appears to be a possibility if we continue in these dry and cold regimes.
Avalanche Problem #1
Problem
Persistent Weak Layer
Trend
Same
Problem #1 Comments
See above, and ECTN 26 down 42 validate the overall cohesiveness of the slab, yet several PST scores of 26 and 27/100 at the same layer: 42 down on 2 mm facet support the fact that potential instabilities are out there where this dense slab overrides these buried PWL's.
OF CONCERN: Is the possibility of folks trusting ECTN scores as indicators of stability, and hense may allow them to trust the "bridging" of the slab as a reason to ride steep slopes. ECT tests are not valid in snowpacks with a dense slab that won't allow for the loading steps to induce reactivity to the buried weak layers.
Also of concern is the lingering presence the December mid storm facet layer that can be found around 28 cm down. Test scores of CTM continue to yield SP and SC shears on .5 mm facets, and if this layer continues to be a player it may be likely to be the initial failure point when we get the next load. Once this layer initiates, the potential for step downs to the previously cited mid pack advanced facet layers will be likely.
Avalanche Problem #2
Problem
Wind Drifted Snow
Trend
Decreasing Danger
Problem #2 Comments
Found one area on a ridgeline at 9600 feet where old wind slabs were still collapsing. And though this problem appears to be stubborn and unreactive, most likely there are isolated areas in steep high consequence terrain where this could be an issue of concern.
Today's Observed Danger Rating
Moderate
Tomorrows Estimated Danger Rating
Moderate
Coordinates