It's no secret, mid and upper elevation southwest, through north, through southeast facing slopes harbor weak faceted snow (weak layer). Wind, snow (water weight), and precipitation intensity are the variables that make the avalanche danger rise or decrease. Add any one of these variables to our current snowpack structure, and it will be no match for the weak snow below... Well, this storm has all three of these variables working in its favor, and I anticipate the avalanche danger to rise significantly this morning into early afternoon as we build a cohesive slab over our weak and unstable base.

These avalanches are not messed with and will be large enough to catch, carry, bury, and kill us. The best way to avoid this problem is to stick to low angle terrain (less than 30° degrees in steepness) with nothing steep above or adjacent to you. These are the conditions where we can trigger avalanches from a distance. Avoidance is key.

Southerly winds will peak mid-morning at speeds of 15-25 mph as the new snow begins to fall. Any slope receiving wind drifted snow will be suspect today. If the wind drifts snow onto slopes that harbor weak faceted snow, it will only complicate the above persistent weak layer problem and make the avalanche more likely to be triggered and make them larger in size. It's best to avoid any slope that is being loaded by the wind.

As the new snow begins to stack up, we could see new snow soft slabs and loose snow avalanches. The game-changer is the rate at which this new snow is forecasted. Over the past week, we've seen off and on again snowfall adding up to 12" of new snow with about an inch of water weight. This storm will bring that amount in twelve hours. The rapid rate is enough to cause the new snow to be unstable.