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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Thursday morning, December 17, 2020
Heads up... our snowpack is teetering on the edge and I expect dangerous avalanche conditions will evolve as today's storm materializes.
In the wind zone, at and above treeline, CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exists. Human triggered avalanches are LIKELY in steep terrain, especially on slopes facing the north half of the compass, and particularly those with an easterly component to its aspect.
Mid elevations offer MODERATE avalanche danger on steep slopes and human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE, especially on slopes facing the north half of the compass.
In either case, it'll be touchy today and once triggered, avalanches may break deeper and wider than you might expect. And remember- shallow snow cover and low tide conditions barely hide natural obstacles like stumps and rocks. Triggering even a small slide can lead to an instant buzz-kill and a season ending injury.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Avalanche Watch
AN AVALANCHE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH, THE WASATCH MOUNTAINS AND THE BEAR RIVER RANGE, THE WESTERN UINTAS AND THE MANTI-SKYLINE PLATEAU.
DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS EXIST ON ALL STEEP SNOW COVERED SLOPES, ESPECIALLY AT MID AND UPPER ELEVATIONS. STAY OFF OF AND OUT FROM UNDERNEATH SLOPES STEEPER THAN 30 DEGREES.
THE AVALANCHE DANGER FOR THE WATCH AREA WILL LIKELY RISE TO HIGH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
Special Announcements
You know the program... roadside attractions are still an easy grab and just 'cause you can see it from the car doesn't mean it's safe or you're good to go. And remember, our front-line health care workers are maxed out. So, let's collectively think about our decisions and the consequences that may have on others.
Looking for ways to navigate through an unusual winter? Please visit this website with information about Responsible Winter Recreation by the Utah Office of Outdoor Recreation
Weather and Snow
Nowcast-
Clouds stream into the region, temperatures have slowly risen into the 20's overnight, and southerly winds ramp into the 30's, all ahead of a solid looking storm that's right on our doorstep. No new snow to report, but riding and turning conditions are slowly improving. However, total snow depths throughout the range average just 12"-18", so the Uinta's are still quite thin and travel is sorta limited to road rides and grassy slopes.
Forecast-
Today we can expect mostly cloudy skies with snow beginning later this morning, increasing in intensity as the day wares on. High temperatures rise into the upper 20's and southwest winds ramp up, blowing 35-50 mph along the high ridges. Storm snow stacks up quickly this evening and we might be able to squeeze a foot of new snow out of this storm before things wind down early Friday.
Futurecast-
Snow showers taper off Friday morning.
Looking for real-time temps, snow, or wind?
Click here and then on the "western Uinta" tab for western Uinta specific, weather station network.
Recent Avalanches
My expression in the screen grab above from the directors cut, reflects the obvious.... our snowpack is coming to life with cracking, spider-webbing, and collapsing a common theme.
To view trip reports and recent avalanche activity, simply click here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Andy and I were near Mill Hollow yesterday and found a very tender and reactive snowpack.
The past few days of field work confirmed our suspicions... we've got a buried and preserved layer of weak, faceted snow and it's reactive to our snowpit tests and more importantly, to our additional weight. The current snowpack structure mirrors an upside-down cake... think, stronger snow on weaker snow. This type of layering leads to tricky avalanche conditions, where we can trigger slides from a distance or from adjacent slopes, and where we can pull the entire log pile down on top of us. And once triggered, today's avalanches may break wider and deeper than you might expect.
But you don't have to ride blind... so, look for and listen to signs of unstable snow like whoomping sounds and sudden collapses of the snowpack or shooting cracks in front of your skis, board, or sled. And of course the biggest clue of all... recent avalanches, especially on the same types of slopes you wanna ride on.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A bump in winds overnight creates a fresh round of drifts that'll react to our additional weight. Found mostly on the leeward side of upper elevation ridges, you'll also want to be on the lookout for cross-loaded terrain like chutes and gullies. In either case, it's an easy and mostly manageable avalanche problem to avoid by simply steering clear of any fat, rounded piece of snow, particularly if it sounds hollow like a drum. And remember... our snowpack is super shallow and triggering even a small slide can take you for a body-bruising ride through rocks and stumps barely hidden under the thin snowpack.
Additional Information
A new snow study site near Camp Steiner is up and running! Click HERE real-time snow fall, total snow depth, and current temperatures. This data fills in a big black hole of snow information near Mirror Lake. I'd like to give a big shout out to Sean and Jesse from the NWS along with Ted Scroggin, our main man in the Uinta's... the entire crew is featured in the viddy above.
I'll update this forecast by 7:00 AM tomorrow, Friday December 18th.
Your observations are import, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community based program
Information on outdoor recreation - The State of Utah created this webpage with information about recreating on both state and federal public lands during the current health crisis.
Skiing and riding at closed ski resorts - Some resorts allow access now, and some do not. Please check HERE for the latest info on ski area access.
New to the backcountry (including riding at closed resorts) - Watch the award-winning, 15 minute Know Before You Go video, or take the 5-part, free online-learning series.
General Announcements
If you see or trigger an avalanche or just wanna let me know what you're seeing you can reach me directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected]
The information in this forecast is from the US Forest Service which is solely responsible for its content.
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