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Forecast for the Salt Lake Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty on
Saturday morning, December 5, 2020
Today the avalanche danger is LOW on all aspects and elevations. Danger ratings are based on the North American Public Danger Scale and defined by three categories: (1) Travel Advice, (2) Likelihood of Avalanches, and (3) Avalanche Size and Distribution. LOW danger is defined as follows:
Travel Advice: Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
Likelihood of Avalanches: Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.
Avalanche Size and distribution: Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
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Announcement: Please visit this website with information about Responsible Winter Recreation by the Utah Office of Outdoor Recreation.

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Weather and Snow
Skies are clear.
Temperatures are in the upper 20s to low 30s with much colder air settled in the basins and trailheads.
Winds picked up out of the southeast overnight and are blowing 15-20mph with gusts to 30.
We have roughly 1-2' of snow on the ground though many southerly aspects have melted to the ground. Sun and wind crusts dominate the landscape along with patches of soft settled powder in the more sheltered terrain.
My ski partner and I toured into the Provo mountains near the north side of Timpanogos and found similar conditions as the central Wasatch, although there was generally less snow and it seemed weaker and more unconsolidated.
For today, we'll see sunny skies, light wind and temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Total snowfall for November at the Alta Guard Station was 51 inches (3.88 inches of water). The average is 68 inches of snow (6.4 inches of water).

The Weather Outlook: Essentially a ridge of high pressure has maintained control of the west, shunting storms well to the north; whereas a few storms lucky enough to squeak through have generally weakened and dived to the south. In the video below of the GFS weather model out a week to 10 days, you'll see one such storm head toward us and then dramatically dive south and west. There are "hints" that the weather pattern may become more progressive around next Friday the 11th. For those unaccustomed to looking at weather maps, look for Utah on the map and associate the pretty colors with storms or unsettled weather. (Apologies to the atmospheric scientists out there.) Note that the loop runs twice on the video.
Recent Avalanches
No avalanches were reported from the backcountry on Friday, although observations from Wednesday and Thursday indicate isolated pockets of recent wind drifts up to 4" in open alpine terrain.
Despite the lean conditions, we continue to receive excellent observations from the backcountry. These are worth paying attention to as they are highlighting are rapidly-weakening snowpack.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
You may find an isolated pocket of wind-drifted snow in exposed, upper-elevation terrain. Although these would be small, the consequences of hitting an exposed hazard such as a rock or downed tree could be substantial.
Our meager early December snowpack measures 1-2' deep at best, and is continuing to weaken under the cold/clear skies through "faceting" - a process that weakens the snow as each clear and cold day rolls by.
Trent produced an excellent video that describes this process and how it is impacting the snowpack structure. For now, it is not a concern, but it will be once we get a load of snow on top. If you know someone new to the backcountry or someone in their first few years of BC riding, please try and share the message that we have a very dangerous snowpack set up in Utah, and when it snows, we will see deadly avalanches.
Additional Information
The beautiful weather forecasted for the weekend provides an ideal time to get out and practice with your rescue gear! Work on beacon drills, probing, and strategic shoveling. Push yourself - and your partners - to improve these important rescue skills.
General Announcements
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.