My oh my people are having fun in the snow. Lots of hootin and hollerin. In his ob from Two Dogs, 1/10, Will McKay noted snow is “all time blower pow.” Based on my experience I would say Will’s assessment is exactly right.

Been touring Millcreek and Neffs the past few days. Today (Sat 1/11) toured Yellow Jacket with runs in Alexander and exiting Bowman Springs avalanche path.

Haven’t done any formal stability tests, just poking in the snow w my pole, down to the ground, which is now under about 5 feet of snow at 9000 feet. Pack is generally dense and solid, with a bit of October snow at the bottom which is noticeable but not playing, and new snow fluff from the past week on top.

Today, after a northwest facing run in the Yellow Jacket path, climbed up to Toots to have a looksee. It was getting pounded by at least two touring parties, five or more people in all. I had it on standby as it is red light terrain and even though it is mid-elevation below 9500 with a forecast of moderate for today I had it as considerable in my own mind. There was a bit of wind mixing the light snowfall into a milky look reminiscent of avalanches past. I was tempted to join in but opted instead for slightly less obvious avalanche terrain in a northeast facing aspen glade a bit lower down, out of the wind, and further north in Alexander.

Did a quick column isolation w my ski pole at about 8500 feet in Alexander just north and out of the Toots path and couldn’t get it to fail. I’ve done this hundreds of times over the years and don’t remember not getting failure. Even when tests such as the ECT indicate stability, columns fail on unreactive weak layers. I was particulary interested to see if the weak layer Drew found in the Meadows, Mark in the Sessions, and Trent in Mineral was present. I couldn’t find it. Doesn’t mean it isn’t there, just not so obvious I can find it. I’m pretty sure the column was a fluke but it is consistent with my overall sense of a generally solid pack.

Visibility was obscured by the snow so I’m not exactly sure how many tracks Toots had, but from what I could tell it got well skied.

Based on what I observed I would say a danger of moderate for mid elevation terrain was right for today.

NWS forecast for upper Millcreek is 8 to 12 inches snow overnight, west wind gusting to 25. For me this puts the hazard at considerable in mid-elevation terrain, at least to start the day.