Another quick tour where the primary objective was to get out of Little Cottonwood before the storm made a mess of the road.

Classic Wasatch powder day high north unskied.

Toured Point Supreme the last 5 days. This is an update to my obs from 11/24 and 11/25. On the way up LCC was thinking about various possibilities when I had to swerve to avoid a large tree branch in the road broken by the wind. At the summer road winds were gusting forcefully so I decided to keep it simple and safe by going to So Long, which I have skied every day since 11/24.

Snow between 10am and 1pm was steady but light generally blowing more horizontally than falling vertically. My truck had no snow on the windshield but was a little wind drifted on top of the doors when I left.

So Long averages less than 30 degrees but does have mid-slope roll hikers right over 30 degrees and is abutted by an avalanche path hikers left. The slope has been skied dozens if not hundreds of times the past week and was well skied in early November. Yesterday 11/26 it was packed in spots in the early stages of getting moguled. Still the underlying structure is weak, especially at the ground and I wonder if the impending snow apocalypse could cause the slope to fail and if so would it move just a few feet or would it take out the trees at the bottom of the run creating a new historic path.

Danger during the hour from noon to 1pm I was lapping So Long was low in this specific low angle terrain. Winds were moving snow causing minor cracking and creating thick chalky 3 foot drifts in the more exposed sections of the gentle ascent from Alta to Point Supreme. Seems likely anything steep and wind loaded would avalanche if provoked by a skier.

The U’s short range ensemble mean for upper Collins is 13 inches in the 24 hour period from 6am 11/27 to 6am 11/28, with another 7 inches by 6am 11/29. The density is low, an inch of water for 20 inches of snow. Winds on Baldy are projected to gust well above 70 mph overnight Wednesday into Thursday, perhaps gusting as much as 100 mph for brief period.

If the forecast verifies, danger will definitely be a solid considerable in steep windloaded terrain Thanksgiving day, possibly high.