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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon for
Tuesday, February 5, 2019
DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS EXIST ON THE EASTERN FRONT-
In the wind zone, at and above treeline, the avalanche danger is HIGH. Both human triggered and natural avalanches are LIKELY on steep wind drifted slopes, especially those facing the north half of the compass. Any avalanche that breaks into deeper buried weak layers near the ground will result in a scary and very dangerous avalanche that will instantly ruin your day.
You'll find CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger on steep, mid elevation, wind drifted slopes and human triggered avalanches are PROBABLE.
Strong winds have created unusual avalanche conditions in low elevation terrain where a MODERATE avalanche danger exists. Human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE on steep slopes near our trailheads, foothills, and possibly our own backyards.
It's eerie out there, but it doesn't mean we can't ride. Choose gentle terrain or big, open meadows with no steep terrain above, adjacent, or connected to where you're traveling. In other words.... simply stay off of and out from under steep, wind drifted slopes.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Avalanche Warning
THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE FOREST SERVICE UTAH AVALANCHE CENTER.
THE FOREST SERVICE UTAH AVALANCHE CENTER IN SALT LAKE CITY HAS EXTENDED A BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WARNING.
* TIMING...THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY.
* AFFECTED AREA...THE WASATCH, WESTERN UINTA, AND BEAR RIVER MOUNTAINS.
* AVALANCHE DANGER...THE AVALANCHE DANGER IS HIGH TODAY.
* REASON/IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WIND IS CREATING WIDESPREAD AREAS OF UNSTABLE SNOW AT UPPER ELEVATIONS. HUMAN TRIGGERED AND NATURAL AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY. STAY OFF OF AND OUT FROM UNDER SLOPES STEEPER THAN 30 DEGREES. TRAVELING IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
Weather and Snow
A band of snow is making its way into the region this morning ahead of the main event slated to arrive later this afternoon. In the meantime, southerly winds continue cranking 40-60 mph along the ridges and temperatures are in the teens and low 20's. A couple inches of snow stacked up since yesterday at this time and storm totals are nearing 2' with just over 2" of H2O. Low visibility, strong winds, and sketchy conditions up high, should steer you to set your sights on lower elevation, wind sheltered terrain.
Above is hourly data from Trial Lake (9,945') and Windy Peak (10,662'). To view more regional weather stations click here.
Brian McInerney, our good friend and partner in crime at the NWS, put together this most excellent viddy describing the upcoming storm. Brian and his crew just kill it and we're grateful for this long standing partnership and to have all this amazing talent that shares accurate, state-of-the-art information, helping keep our community safe.
Recent Avalanches
Poor viz yesterday, so no pictures, but I did note sensitive wind drifts breaking a couple feet deep and very tender corni breaking further back than I expected.
Recent trip reports and avy activity found HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Nothing has changed since yesterday-
Strong winds, dense heavy snow, and a respectable amount of water weight will most definitely bring our dormant, midpack weak layers, out of their winter slumber. And my bet is they're ticked off, they're gonna be cranky, and they're gonna react to our additional weight now that they've come back to life. Our snowpack history reveals that each time there's a sufficient load of water weight, wind, and snow we see avalanches that break unmanageably wide and deep, often failing around this persistent midpack weakness. This is a tricky setup because the snow will feel strong under our skis, board, or sled. Problem is... we gotta think not only about the snow we're riding in, but also the snow we're riding on and the fact is.... it's strong snow over weak snow, which often gives us false signs of stable snow. This is the kind of setup where we see avalanches triggered mid slope, low on the slope, or from a distance. That's too much uncertainty for me to deal with so I'm choosing to follow my gut, my intuition, and my own forecast. I'm gonna stay off of and out from under steep, wind drifted slopes.
JG was near Hoyt Peak yesterday and posted one of his world class pit profiles clearly illustrating the most obvious avy hazard right now in new snow/old snow interface. However, don't get fooled into thinking we're just dealing with new snow instabilities. Our deeper midpack issues aren't going to be too stoked with the recent storm and we need to give the pack some time to adjust.
Here's your exit strategy-
Invoke your inner Marley and head over to Trenchtown (Rock :).... you can still get after it and avoid the avalanche dragon today in big open meadows with no steep terrain above or adjacent to where you're riding.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Even from the trailheads you can see winds have been cranking.
Yesterday, I was surprised to see how the strong winds were penetrating all elevations, forming fresh drifts all over the map. While most prevalent on the leeward side of mid and upper elevation ridges, drifting also occurred around terrain features like chutes, gullies, and sub-ridges. In addition, winds cranked even down low near the trailheads so expect to find fresh drifts in unusually low elevation terrain. In any case, today you'll want to look for and avoid any fat, rounded piece of snow, especially if it sounds hollow like a drum.
Additional Information
We can expect a strong southwesterly flow which brings periods of relatively high density snow and strong winds cranking 50-70 mph along the ridges for much of the day. Temperatures rise into the upper 20's. A shallow cold front reaches the area later this afternoon, snowfall rates should increase and winds decrease into the evening. The main trough crosses the region tonight into Wednesday bringing much cooler temperatures, with low density snow continuing through much of the day Wednesday into Wednesday evening before tapering off. Snow totals by late Wednesday should be in the 12"-18" range
General Announcements
The information in this advisory expires 24 hours after the date and time posted, but will be updated by 7:00 AM Wednesday February 6th, 2019.
If you're getting out and about, please let me know what you're seeing especially if you see or trigger and avalanche. I can be reached at [email protected] or 801-231-2170
It's also a good time to set up one of our very popular avalanche awareness classes. Reach out to me and I'll make it happen.
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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