Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains
Saturday morning, March 10, 2018
The majority of the terrain along the Skyline has a LOW to MODERATE avalanche danger and most people can travel and recreate safely today. However, a CONSIDERABLE danger still exists in the upper elevation slopes steeper than about 35 degrees that face northwest, north and east. Human triggered avalanches are likely today in this terrain.
Weather and Snow
Last weekend's storm brought 8 to 11 inches of new snow to the Skyline. Southwest wind following the storm drifted a significant amount of snow. We've seen warmer temperatures over the last few days. This has not effected the avalanche conditions much. All the warm temps have done is settle the new snow and make it damp on the sunny facing slopes and all aspects in the mid and lower elevations.
This morning we have mountain temperatures in the mid 20s, light west wind and a few scattered clouds.
Recent Avalanches
Last weekend's storm was finally enough to tip the balance of the weak snowpack we have. Avalanches have been breaking to the ground and are large enough to be very dangerous. Here is a list of significant avalanches that I know of which have released in the Skyline region recently:
- 03/7/2018 Skyline region: Avalanche: North Fork Lake Canyon, Snowmobiler trigger - 3.5' deep - 350' wide
- 03/5/2018 Skyline region: Avalanche: Eliza Fork, Skier trigger - 3' deep - 600' wide
- 03/5/2018 Skyline region: Avalanche: High Top, Natural trigger
- 03/5/2018 Skyline region: Avalanche: The Cove, Natural trigger - 3.5' deep - 150' wide
- 03/5/2018 Skyline region: Avalanche: Rolfson, Snowmobiler trigger - 3.5' deep - 300' wide
- 03/4/2018 Skyline region: Avalanche: South Fork Coal Fork, Natural trigger
- 02/26/2018 Skyline region: Avalanche: North Fork, Snowmobiler trigger - 2.5' deep - 125' wide
- 02/26/2018 Skyline region: Avalanche: Loggers Fork, Snowmobiler trigger - 2' deep - 50' wide
- 02/24/2018 Skyline region: Avalanche: Knob Mountain, Skier trigger - 3.5' deep - 250' wide
The most recent one I found was in the north fork of Lake Canyon. This appears to have been snowmobile triggered. What is important about this is that there are MANY more slopes exactly like this that haven't avalanched and just need a trigger in the right spot to release.
Persistent Weak Layer
Description
If a person gets onto steep slopes that face northwest, north or east, buried weak snow near the ground is still likely to collapse and cause avalanches. The snowpack is more stubborn now compared to earlier in the week so you may be able to get onto a number of slopes before one avalanches on you. This makes things trickier. The key is to continue to avoid those steep slopes that I mentioned.
Additional Information
It looks like a pretty nice day ahead with partly cloudy skies, mountain temperatures in the low 30s and light northwest wind. A minor weather disturbance will move through tonight with no snow accumulations expected. Sunday will be cloudy but perhaps clearing later in the afternoon. High temperatures will be around 30 and we'll have light wind from the east. High pressure settles in for early in the week and a larger storm is shaping up for later in the week.
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