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Forecast for the Abajo Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty for
Saturday, March 3, 2018

Many areas have LOW avalanche danger. Areas of MODERATE, however, exist in localized terrain for triggering an avalanche 1-2' deep. These would be more likely on heavily wind loaded areas on slopes facing west to north to east at the mid and upper elevations. Remember that risk is inherent in mountain travel and safe travel protocols save lives: carry and know how to use rescue equipment, put only one person on a slope at a time, and have a plan.

The best and safest conditions exist on low angle shady sheltered slopes with no overhead hazard.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements

UAC Moab (La Sals/Abajos) forecaster Eric Trenbeath and I are on a short exchange through Sunday. He'll be taking my shifts in the UAC - Salt Lake office this weekend. I'll have forecasts up for the La Sals through Sunday and for the Abajos on Saturday and Sunday.

If anything needs my attention or if there are pertinent snow, weather, or avalanche observations, please submit an observation or email or call me directly: [email protected] or 801.842.8519. Thanks -

Episode 6 of the UAC podcast "A Conversation with Tom Kimbrough" is live. We explore ideas about lifetime exposure to risk and what role Buddhism has played in his life as a climber, skier, and soon-to-be octogenarian. We talk about what has changed over the years in snow science and the role of mentorship in the world of avalanche forecasting and other professions and pursuits. Check it out on ITunes, Stitcher, the UAC blog.

The UAC Marketplace is still open. Our online marketplace still has deals on skis, packs, airbag packs, beacons, snowshoes, soft goods and much more.

INSTAGRAM! We now have a UAC-Moab Instagram page. You can find it here....but better yet follow us on your smartphone. Confused? Ask a teenager.

Weather and Snow

Skies are mostly clear with mountain temperatures in the upper teens on Abajo Peak and the upper 20s elsewhere. Winds remain moderate out of the south with hourly averages in the 20s with gusts to 40. Chalk up another dust event to the snowpack with yesterday's winds. It's now the second after the strong southerlies preceding the storm a couple weeks ago. Local pro avalanche observer Kevin Dressel and I toured into the upper North Creek, the Jackson Ridge and No Name Peak yesterday and our report can be found here.

Wind, temperature and humidity on Abajo Peak (11,000')

Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')

Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')

A quick look at the Camp Jackson snotel site below to see how we're doing as compared to last year and the average year. It should come as no surprise that we are just at 37% of average in the Abajo mountains. See image below to compare this lean year against last year's banner season. Still, we found excellent travel and riding conditions in the sun and wind sheltered terrain. Depths range from 1-3'.

Recent Avalanches

None.

Your information to us helps to save lives. Reports of avalanches, cracking, collapsing or any other information makes a difference. It's easy to do, even from your smartphone. Thanks -

Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Hard wind drifts are scattered across the landscape and would also best be described as stubborn, not sensitive. Remember that with soft slabs, you're "in" the snow; with hard slabs, you're "on top of" the snow. Hard slabs are devious because they often break above you on the slope and may not release on the first, second, or third person. They may also propagate onto lower angle slopes. Cracking and collapsing may not be evident. These hard slabs are more pronounced on northwest to east to southeast facing slopes in the alpine, but terrain channeling (as noticed yesterday) allows for drifts to be on a variety of aspects in the mid elevations.

Cornices. As always, if you're traveling along the higher ridgelines, give cornices a very wide berth. The hard cornices can break well back from the apex of the ridgeline.

Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Owing to the thin and threadbare early season snow conditions, the current snowpack holds a poor structure both within the mid-layers and (more significantly) near the ground. Avalanche activity, collapsing, cracking - all surefire bulls-eye clues are absent as of now, but persistent slab avalanches are aptly named. At this point, these fall into the "low-probability -- high consequence" regime with avalanches stubborn but consequences real. This structure is most pronounced on steep mid and upper elevation west to north to southeast facing slopes at the mid and upper elevations and more likely to be pried out with heavy loads (cornice drop, other avalanche cascading down from above, or - as a person - finding a thin weak spot on the slope). Avoidance is the ticket - the risk/reward algorithm really doesn't match up right now.

Additional Information

For today, we'll have very warm and windy conditions with increasing cloudy cover by this afternoon/evening. Temps today at 10,000' will rise to the upper 20s but crash to the low teens tomorrow. Southerly winds along the highest peaks again will be 40+ with gusts to 70+. The La Sals may see upwards of 2-5" of snow by later Sunday with things clearing out rapidly by early Monday. High pressure dominates through the week with perhaps another storm for next weekend.

General Announcements

The UAC has new support programs with Outdoor Research and Darn Tough. Support the UAC through your daily shopping. When you shop at Smith's, or online at Outdoor Research, REI, Backcountry.com, Darn Tough, Patagonia, NRS, Amazon, eBay a portion of your purchase will be donated to the FUAC. See our Donate Page for more details on how you can support the UAC when you shop.

Benefit the Utah Avalanche Center when you buy or sell on eBay - set the Utah Avalanche Center as a favorite non-profit in your eBay account here and click on eBay gives when you buy or sell. You can choose to have your seller fees donated to the UAC, which doesn't cost you a penny

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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