Observation: Tri-Canyon tour

Observation Date
02/3/2018
Observer Name
T Diegel

Region:

Location Name or Route
LCC to BCC (Days) to MC
Weather
Sky
Overcast
Wind Direction
West
Wind Speed
Moderate
Weather Comments
an angry trace of new, but dust on crust is better'n crust. not enough wind or snow to affect much transport.
Snow Characteristics
Snow Characteristics Comments

a wide variety of surfaces; crust on south/SE, decent powder with lots of tracks on high north, and chowder (at best) on all aspects below about 8500+.  

Avalanche Problem #1
Type
Persistent Slab
Problem #1 Comments

I dug one hole at about 10+k feet north facing that of course wasn't a surprise; a nice shear about a foot down and then facets near the ground that created an easy shear.  

Comments

I dug another hole today on the lee side of the south ridge of mighty Reynolds peak as we were discussing the potential effects of long term too-warm conditions, and I was a bit surprised to be able to make a snowball from every point down the snowpack.  Is it saturating enough to create one cohesive slab and creating a big "bridge?"  Bet my life on it with another load on top, or insist that the snowpack is now stable at least at mid-elevations with a longer-term melt?  No.  But possibly one sliver of light in an otherwise-discouraging winter of snow, avalanche danger, and subsequent terrain options?  Maybe.  

For the time being we are still being pretty conservative and trying to stick to lower-angles, ridges, avoiding steep rolls and thin areas (the latter is hard to do), but probably the likelihood of triggering an avy now is pretty low until the next load.  However, I would call the danger moderate because you probably could pry something out someplace with a bold/dumb move?  

Today's Observed Danger Rating
Moderate
Tomorrows Estimated Danger Rating
Moderate
Snow Profile Coordinates