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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Sunday morning, December 24, 2017

The avalanche danger is generally LOW on the majority of the terrain along the Skyline. There is a slight chance that a person might trigger a pocket on the steep north facing slopes above about 9500' where a pockety MODERATE danger exists. These won't be large avalanches but even a small one would not be good to take a ride in due to such shallow cover over the rocks and logs.

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Weather and Snow

Only a skiff of snow fell during Saturday's minor storm. The west wind was blowing fairly strong along the ridges and was getting down into the canyon bottoms also. Temperatures cooled down into the teens and the wind has slowed a bunch except in the more exposed locations where it is still in the moderate speed range.

There is not really enough snow along the Skyline for recreating on skis, snowboards or snowmobiles yet. I spoke with someone who rode their sled up one of the canyons and he reported his skis were sinking right through the low density snow and grinding gravel most of the way up.

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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Weak snow from October and November has formed on the north facing slopes above about 9500'. The recent storm didn't overload this weak snow. The recent west wind might have transported enough of the new low density powder creating some pockets that might release if provoked. These avalanches won't be all that big but could ruin your day nonetheless.

It's a "Catch 22" because these upper elevation north facing slopes are exactly where we want to go since they are holding the most snow right now. Approach these slopes with caution. It's a much different winter compared to last winter so far.

Link to Youtube video about the weak snow

Additional Information

We'll see clouds moving in today as the day progresses ahead of the next little storm. Ridge top high temperatures will be in the mid 20s and west wind will be in the moderate speed range. The storm that will roll through tonight looks fairly windy with temperatures remaining in the 20s. I'm thinking we might see 3 to 6" by Christmas Day. It's not much be we'll take anything we can at this point! The latest model runs do make tonights storm look a bit better for our region. For next week, I don't see anything except a minor disturbance brushing the north half of the state on Saturday. We'll hope for better in 2018!

General Announcements

We will publish full detailed advisories Saturday and Sunday mornings by 7am. We will also be publishing basic avalanche danger ratings & info during the week.

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