Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Wednesday, March 1, 2017

The avalanche danger is MODERATE on steep wind drifted slopes, but all MODERATE ratings are not created equal. On upper elevation slopes facing N-NE-E you may find areas of CONSIDERABLE danger. Gusty winds, and changing directions have also deposited isolated slabs on the other side of the compass. Suspect the leeward sides of terrain features such as gully walls and sub ridges, and be wary of steep convexities, and blind break-overs. Avoid steep slopes with smooth rounded deposits of wind drifted snow. There is also a MODERATE danger for triggering a persistent slab avalanche on steep slopes that face W-N-E. Backcountry travelers need to possess excellent stability analysis skills before venturing into steep terrain.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements

Road Plowing: Grand County will be plowing today, expect to find the road to Geyser Pass Trailhead closed by 9:00 a.m. It will re-open sometime around noon.

Lost Skis: A guest from Talking Mountain Yurts left a pair of blue DPS skis with Dynafit bindings at Geyser Pass Trailhead on Monday. Please call Will at 435-260-7601 if you picked them up.

Craig Bigler lost a ski in the North Woods. If you run across it pleas call him at 435-260-1007

Weather and Snow

I was pleasantly surpirsed to find how good conditions were yesterday. Winds have worked over exposed, upper elevation slopes, but sheltered locations offer good powder conditions. About 15" of snow has accumulated since last Wednesday, the last shot fo which came in at 4" on Monday. SW winds on Monday howled in the 30-40 mph range with gusts to 50. By Tuesday, they had shifted to norhtwesterly. Deep drifts have formed on leeward aspects, primarily those that face N-NE-E.

For recent observations go here.

Wind, temperature and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak. (11,700')

Storm totals and temperature in Gold Basin. (10,000')

Snow totals, temperature and snow/water equivalent at the Geyser Pass Trailhead. (9600')

Ad
Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

A combination of wind slabs old and new will be your primary concern out there today. Expect to find them liberally scattered throughout the high country on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as sub ridges, gully walls or rock buttresses. A subtle variation in terrain can make all the difference, and in some cases, a stiff wind slab may exist adjacent to a scoured surface or even exposed ground. Upwards of a foot of snow has been lying around, available for transport, and with winds of this intensity, drifts will have formed farther down slope than usual. Suspect any steep slope with smooth rounded deposits of wind drifted snow, and avoid slopes with steep convexities and blind break-overs. N-NE-E aspects are the most suspect.

Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

We have a couple of weak faceted layers in the upper portion of the snowpack. Dave Garcia has been experiencing isolated collapsing and has identified a weak layer on WNW aspects around 11,000'. Read his observation here. I have found two, weak faceted layers about 2' below the surface on NE-N-NW aspects between 11,000 and 11,500 feet. They are reactive to stabilty tests scoring ECTP 20-24. The video below illustrates the problem pretty well if you can suffer through the poor sound quality. It gets better the second half, my apologies.

Additional Information

High Pressure and warmer temperatures are on top for the rest of the week.

General Announcements

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The information in this advisory is from the US Forest Service which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.