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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Tuesday morning, January 24, 2017

The avalanche danger is HIGH in upper elevation, wind drifted terrain and natural and human triggered avalanches are likely. Backcountry travelers should avoid avalanche terrain by staying off of and out from under steep slopes. The danger will be greatest on slopes that have a NW-N-E aspect, but drifting snow and freshly formed wind slabs will be found on all aspects in the wind zone. At mid elevations, the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE and human triggered avalanches are likely. Stick to sheltered, low angle terrain if you must be out in the mountains today.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Avalanche Bulletin

Heavy snowfall and strong winds have created dangerous avalanche conditions in the mountains today. Backcountry travelers need to possess excellent route finding skills. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.

Special Announcements

Road Conditions: Grand County pushed through one lane up to the trailhead on Monday and the road is passable.

Backcountry 101 Avalanche Class

We will be offering a Backcountry 101 avalanche class on Feb 3, 4. This course will include a night classroom session and a day in the field. Cost is $125 with proceeds to benefit the Utah Avalanche Center Moab. For more information or to sign up go here.

Weather and Snow

Heavy snowfall and strong winds have created dangerous avalanche conditions and areas of deep drifted snow, alternating with scoured zones and thick wind crusts. Backcountry travel is not only dangerous but difficult. All told, the mountains have received 40" of snow above 10,000' since Thursday night, and it's a shame what the winds have done to it. Yesterday, southerly winds averaged 30-40 mph for several hours with regular gusts over 70. Use the links below for current wind, snow totals, and temperature.

Wind, temperature and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak.(11,700')

Storm totals and temperature in Gold Basin.(10,000')

Snow totals, temperature and snow/water equivalent at the Geyser Pass Trailhead. (9600')

Recent Avalanches

On Saturday, a party remotely triggered this avalanche on a north facing slope at 10,400'. The avalanche likely failed on buried near surface facets under the load of new storm snow, eventually stepping down to deeper faceted layers around rocks.


Photo courtesy of James "Jimbo" Collins who was out flying around.

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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Strong winds, heavy snowfall, and lots of available snow for transport all translate to dangerous wind slab conditions. Today expect to find deep drifts 2-4' deep on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features. The danger will be greatest on slopes facing the north half of the compass, but with so much snow blowing around, wind slabs will have formed on all aspects wherever terrain features are able to capture drifting snow.

Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Dense new snow has formed a cohesive slab on all aspects at mid an upper elevations and avalanches within the new snow will be likely on slopes approaching 35 degrees.

Avalanche Problem #3
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Heavy snowfall and wind loading have increased the stress on buried weak layers within the snowpack. Avalanches initiated within the new snow now have the potential to step down into these buried weak layers. In some cases this could mean stepping down to buried near surface facets that formed prior to the beginning of this last storm cycle. In other cases, it could mean stepping down to weak, faceted snow near the ground. You are most likely to encounter this type of situation in steep, rocky, heavily featured terrain where the underlying snowpack is still relatively shallow.

Additional Information

Tuesday

Snow showers likely, mainly before 11am. Areas of blowing snow before 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 14. Wind chill values as low as -10. Breezy, with a west northwest wind 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Tuesday Night

A 30 percent chance of snow showers before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 3. Wind chill values as low as -15. West northwest wind around 15 mph.

Wednesday

Partly sunny, with a high near 13. Wind chill values as low as -10. West northwest wind around 10 mph.

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 2. West wind around 10 mph.

Thursday

Partly sunny, with a high near 14.

Thursday Night

A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 4.

Friday

A slight chance of snow showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 15.

General Announcements

Grooming: Heavy snow through the weekend will prevent grooming.

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The information in this advisory is from the US Forest Service which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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