The avalanche hazard is generally Low, however there are three current avalanche concerns which lead to a Moderate hazard in the upper elevations:
1. Wind Slabs. There are hard wind slabs in the mid and upper elevations that formed from the persistent winds on Tuesday and Wednesday. Backcountry observers on Thursday reported these slabs to be unresponsive to stability tests - at most only cracking right around your skis - and they should continue to stabilize today. However, these slabs are sitting on top of softer, lower density snow which can provide the necessary weak layer to triggering a wind slab avalanche. Triggering wind slab avalanches is unlikely today, and if you do, they would be mostly 4-12" deep pockets and not well-connected. Wind slabs in exposed, upper elevation terrain may be larger and more connected.
2. Persistent Slabs. Based upon field observations, our persistent, deep slab avalanche problem is currently dormant. But in some terrain on upper elevation, northerly aspects, weak snow sits at the base with a stronger slab on top. In addition to the snow from the Christmas storm, some of these upper elevation slopes have also undergone recent wind loading this past week. Although the persistent, deep slab problem is very isolated, any avalanche breaking down near the ground in this type of terrain would be very large and dangerous. Remember, with a persistent slab instability, tracks on a slope are not an indication of stability!
3. Wet Activity. Skies were clear and temperatures were quite warm on Thursday with observers noting roller balls on solar aspects by late morning, and steep south faces dampening by mid-day. I am not expecting an increase in wet activity for today as temperatures are forecasted to be slightly lower than Thursday, along with a possible increase in cloud cover later in the day. And although it's hard to believe we are talking about wet activity in late December, southeast through west aspects will warm again today with wet rollerballs beginning by late morning. With a decent low elevation snowpack, by early afternoon loose wet activity as well as wet slabs in lower elevations is also possible. If you find the snow surface dampening, you may want to reconsider plans for steep, lower elevation exits such as Maybird Gulch.
As always, be sure to practice safe travel protocols and ski a slope one at a time and get out of the runout zone at the bottom of a slope.