Forecast for the Abajo Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Tuesday, December 27, 2016

The avalanche danger is MODERATE​ today in steep, upper elevation terrain where blustery winds and blowing snow over the weekend created newly formed wind slabs. On slopes that face NW-N-E, a triggered wind slab also has the potential to step down causing a deeper and more dangerous persistent slab avalanche. For LOW danger stick to the lower elevations.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow

The Abajo Mountains picked up about a foot of snow over Christmas weekend, and base depth at Camp Jackson is 22". Overall, It's still pretty thin coverage with a lot of grass and bushes poking out, but things are improving.

Winds, temperature and humidity on Abajo Peak.

Snow totals at Camp Jackson.

Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Moderate to strong, gusty winds with plenty of loose snow available for transport over the weekend translated to drifting snow and the formation of new wind slabs. Avoid areas of recently deposited, wind drifted snow and look for tell tale signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface. A triggered wind slab also has the potential to step down into a deeper persistent slab.

Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

The underlying snowpack is very weak, and additional snow load from overriding wind slabs has increased the danger for trigger a deeper persistent slab avalanche. You are most likely to find this problem on steep, upper elevation slopes that have a NW-N-E aspect.

Additional Information

Today

Sunny, with a high near 31. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.

Tonight

Mostly clear, with a low around 21. West southwest wind 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday

Sunny, with a high near 32. West northwest wind around 15 mph.

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 21. Northwest wind around 15 mph.

Thursday

Sunny, with a high near 33. Northwest wind around 10 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon.

Thursday Night

A 20 percent chance of snow after 11pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 22.

Friday

A 30 percent chance of snow after 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 31.