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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Sunday morning, December 18, 2016

The majority of the terrain has a LOW to MODERATE avalanche danger today. However, above 9500' on steep north through east facing slopes, a CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exists due to recent wind transported snow. Look around for avalanches that may have released during the storm. Make cuts on steep test slopes with no consequences to see if you can get any cracking of the snow. It's probably best to leave the big slopes alone for another day or so.

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Moderate
Considerable
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Weather and Snow

BRRRRRR! It's 5 below 0 at many of the higher elevation weather stations this morning. The wind speeds have really dropped off and are generally light.from the northwest. Light snowfall continued in many areas through the day on Saturday but did really accumulate much. The new snow consists of very nice powder on the surface. It was almost too deep for traveling on Saturday. Sensors show settlement with the new snow and travel will be easier today.

As far as stability, overall the snowpack looks pretty good. The old snow deeper in the pack does not contain any significant weak layers. The new snow is all "right side up" and I was not able to find any weakness with in it. CLICK HERE for more details on the current snowpack.

Recent Avalanches

I have not seen any recent avalanches nor has anyone reported any. Keep in mind that visibility has been poor since the storm started. Today will be the first day that we'll be able to get an idea if there was any avalanche activity during the storm.

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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

A lot of snow was transported by the wind onto the north through east facing slopes during the storm. Because of poor visibility, no one knows yet how these large new drifts are behaving. We haven't been able to see to get up and assess things. What we do know is that when snow gets transported by the wind, often times it creates sensitive wind slabs that release naturally or are sensitive to a person. It's been two days now since the wind loading occurred. My gut tells me that things will be not too sensitive today. However, we must treat the upper elevation steep north through east facing slopes as guilty until proven innocent. With good weather today, we'll be able to do a good assessment.

Additional Information

We'll have mostly clear skies today with high temperatures around 10 degrees and mostly light northwest wind. Temperatures warm into the 20s on Monday with another clear day. Tuesday is also mostly clear then a small storm will move through Tuesday night brining a small amount of snow.

General Announcements

We will publish full detailed advisories Saturday and Sunday mornings by 7am. We will also be publishing basic avalanche danger ratings & info during the week.

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