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Observation: Snowbasin Backcountry

Observation Date
4/3/2016
Observer Name
Bill Hunt
Region
Ogden » Snowbasin Backcountry
Location Name or Route
Snowbasin backcountry
Weather
Sky
Few
Weather Comments
Bluebird in the morning, with a few clouds after 2PM giving a bit of respite from the warm temperatures.
Snow Characteristics
Snow Surface Conditions
Dense Loose
Melt-Freeze Crust
Damp
Snow Characteristics Comments
Still some decent snow on north facing above 9000'; I didn't go lower. Getting quite sticky on other aspects in the afternoon (exited in-area).
Red Flags
Red Flags
Rapid Warming
Red Flags Comments
We need a real freeze, and may not get it tonight. A low of 41 F is forecast for the Snowbasin base tonight, high of 60 tomorrow, then 32 F Monday night (finally). I suppose things will freeze somewhat with clear skies, but it may be a rather superficial refreeze.
Avalanche Problem #1
Problem
Wet Snow
Trend
Increasing Danger
Problem #1 Comments
It seems to have been warm enough, long enough, that increasingly unpredictable wet slides could occur. There has still been good soft snow above 9000' in the most shaded aspects. Tomorrow that could be in the Moderate range in the afternoon, even for the North facing upper elevations.
Comments
While there were skier-triggered slides on the Fingers chutes the past couple days (East facing, 9300', around 11-12 noon, photo), today there was a significant rollerball cycle in the early afternoon. 1:55PM: After this area went into the shade, and a few clouds had materialized, we saw a number of releases continuing off the rocks. One triggered a point release on the slope below, 9040' NE facing, running a couple hundred feet.
At 2:30PM, we were still enjoying the sun on the John Paul lodge deck, when a sizeable wet natural came out of the Mt Ogden Couloir area. Some of these chunks looked to be 3-4 feet in diameter. Viewed from Mt Ogden Bowl road, this looked like a point release off the rocks near the base of the chute. Note that the starting zone rocks are in the shade, and there are a few clouds out; but the heat of the afternoon, and the previous (morning) sun on the NE-facing rocks, was enough to trigger a number of natural point releases off of these rocks, culminating in the 2:30PM slide, which ran down onto a rather low angle slope. Careful timing before noon tomorrow will be important once again.
One last thought, the April sun has melted the snow off below 7000', on SE, S, SW aspects (suggestion is for the forecast rose to use grey on those aspects). Here are S and SE aspects on Sardine peak, 7485 ft at the summit.
Today's Observed Danger Rating
Moderate
Tomorrows Estimated Danger Rating
Moderate