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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Thursday, March 10, 2016

With daytime heating, the danger will rise to MODERATE on sun exposed slopes. Look for signs of instability such as roller balls or pinwheels, and sloppy wet snow. Get off of, and stay out from under sun exposed slopes when these signs are present.

There remains a MODERATE avalanche danger in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain, primarily on slopes with a NW-N-E aspect where it is still possible to trigger a wind slab formed earlier in the week. Terrain choices are key - suspect slopes with steep convexities, and look for drifted snow on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow

Skies are clear this morning, ridgetop winds are averaging 10-15 mph from the NW, and temperatures are a seasonable cool at around 20 degrees at 10,000. Dry powder snow from the Sunday-Monday storm can still be found on sheltered, northerly aspects. Sunny slopes have been crusted over.

Base depth in Gold Basin: 69"

Winds, temperature and humidity on Pre-Laurel Peak

New snow totals, temperature and humidity in Gold Basin

Total snow depth and temperature at Geyser Pass Trailhead

A new coat off snow has improved things greatly and good powder exists just below treeline or on more sheltered slopes above.

But go a little higher into more exposed terrain and it starts to look like this.

Recent Avalanches

A skier triggered a slide in Gold Basin on the NE face of Tukno yesterday. He was caught and carried over rocks and sustained a leg injury. The culprit was reported to be a wind slab between 12-16" deep on the lee side of a very steep, convex break over. I'll get in there today to have a look around and will post a full report tomorrow.


This photo was taken from across the basin by a member of a party who would come to play a key role in the rescue.

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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

With daytime heating, the danger will increase for wet slide activity on sun exposed slopes. Look for signs of instability such as roller balls or pinwheels, and sloppy wet snow. Get off of and stay out from under sun exposed slopes when these signs are present.

Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Though isolated, yesterday's incident demonstrates that dangerous wind slabs formed during the Sunday-Monday storm are still lurking about. You will most likely encounter wind slabs in more extreme, upper elevation, wind exposed terrain, on slopes that have a NW-N-E aspect. Terrain features are a key element. Suspect steep convexities and blind break-overs, as well as the lee sides of ridge crests, gully walls and sub-ridges. Cracking in the snow surface is becoming less evident, but look for smooth rounded pillows of wind drifted snow in these areas.

Additional Information

Temperatures are going to soar into the mid 40's today around 10,000' and it's going to be even warmer tomorrow. A storm tracking south into Arizona and New Mexico will bring clouds and a chance of snow to our area by Saturday afternoon.

Today

Sunny, with a high near 45. North northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south southwest in the afternoon.

Tonight

Mostly clear, with a low around 30. South wind 10 to 15 mph.

Friday

Sunny, with a high near 49. South wind around 15 mph.

Friday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 31. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 15 to 20 mph.

Saturday

A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 44. South southwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west in the afternoon.

Saturday Night

A 10 percent chance of snow before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 26.

Sunday

A 10 percent chance of snow after 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 43.

General Announcements

Road Conditions: The road is a mix of dirt at lower elevations that turns to mud as the day progresses. It is snowpacked higher up.

To post an observation go here. You can view Moab observations here. You can also give me a call on my cell phone at 801-647-8896

To receive this advisory by email go here.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.

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