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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Saturday morning, January 30, 2016

THE AVALANCHE DANGER WILL BE INCREASING AS THE STORM ARRIVES LATER TODAY. A CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exists along the higher north through southeast facing steep terrain where human triggered avalanches are likely that could break to the ground. Also, avoid very steep terrain in the lower elevations until the snowpack cools down again. There will likely be a HIGH danger on Sunday.

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Weather and Snow

There was a rain-snow mix happening late in the day on Friday with the rain-snow line somewhere around 8000 feet. Temperatures have actually increased overnight which will push that rain-snow line up perhaps to 9000 feet. The snowpack is quite wet in the lower elevations. It was slightly breezy along the ridges on Friday and the winds have bumped in speed slightly overnight. They are generally from the west.

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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

The weak snow that is near the ground and another layer in the middle of the snowpack is my biggest concern. Wind transporting snow during the day today may increased the chances of triggering a deep avalanche breaking into these layers. The danger will continue to increase as we start to add snow late today.

Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Rain on snow can make the snowpack do strange things sometimes. It can produce avalanches where we don't usually see them. I would avoid very steep lower elevation terrain today where the snowpack is damp and saturated. Especially avoid being in the bottom of gullies where a natural avalanche from above may funnel into it. Sometimes we don't see any avalanche activity due to the wet snow but it certainly is a clue that should be taken into account.

Additional Information

I am not as excited about this storm as I once was. The cold front will slowly sag through the state from the north and arrive in our area late afternoon or early evening. We should see an intense period of snowfall during this time. Wind speeds should increase and be quite strong from the west today. Temperatures will remain mild through most of the day. I'm expecting 6 to 10 inches of snow by Sunday morning. A secondary system is going to move through southern Utah starting mid day Sunday. It looks to me like it's a bit too far south to give us huge amounts of snow but we'll hopefully see a few more inches out of it.

General Announcements

We will publish full detailed advisories Saturday and Sunday mornings by 7am. We will also be publishing basic avalanche danger ratings & info during the week.

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