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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Today the avalanche danger is MODERATE​ on upper elevation slopes steeper than 35 degrees where you can detect recent deposits of wind drifted snow. With a forecasted increase in winds, this danger could rise to CONSIDERABLE, particularly on steep slopes with a more easterly component to them.

Out of the wind zone at lower elevations, the avalanche danger is generally LOW.

Low
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Weather and Snow

Another 2" of snow fell last night bringing our total up to between 5-7" over the last 36 hours. Not exactly a deep but certainly a refresh, and conditions should be markedly improved, especially in wind sheltered areas.

Winds between 5:00 pm and midnight last night averaged 25 mph with gusts in the 40's from the southwest. They are light and northwesterly this morning but should increase throughout the day. It's 23 degrees at the Geyser Pass Trailhead and 13 on Pre Laurel Peak.

Base depth in gold Basin: 62"

Winds, temperature and humidity on Pre-Laurel Peak

New snow totals, temperature and humidity in Gold Basin

Total snow depth and temperature at Geyser Pass Trailhead

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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Wind slabs old and new will be the primary concern today. Expect to find them on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features in wind exposed terrain and avoid slopes steeper than 35 degrees where you can detect recent deposits of wind drifted snow. With winds forecasted to increase today expect the danger to rise.

Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Older slabs that formed over the weekend are now covered up by several inches of new snow as well as fresh new deposits of wind drifted snow. The old slabs are resting over weak, near surface facets, and this constitutes a new persistent slab problem. I haven't been out to see how reactive these slabs are, but I suspect it is now possible to trigger slides down to this buried weak layer.

Additionally, slopes that avalanched over Christmas, have now filled in just enough to become repeat offenders due to the presence of weak, faceted snow on the old bed surface. The only way to know for sure what the extent of this problem is, is to dig down into the snow and see for yourself. I'll be up tomorrow and will try to get a better feel for this developing new problem, but in the meantime, view steep slopes with a northerly aspect as suspect.

Additional Information

Today

Snow likely, mainly before 7am. Patchy fog between noon and 3pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 23. Blustery, with a west northwest wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Tonight

A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly before 9pm. Patchy fog between midnight and 1am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 10. Wind chill values as low as -10. Windy, with a north wind 25 to 35 mph decreasing to 15 to 25 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph.

Thursday

Sunny, with a high near 24. North northeast wind around 15 mph.

Thursday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 17. North northwest wind 10 to 15 mph.

Friday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 28. West southwest wind 10 to 15 mph.

General Announcements

Grooming Conditions: Trails were groomed yesterday but will have a couple inches of new snow on them this morning. Grooming is scheduled again for Thursday.

Thanks for sending in your observations. You can view Moab observations here. To post an observation go here.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.

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