Observation: Maybird Gulch

Observation Date
1/19/2016
Observer Name
Greg Gagne
Region
Salt Lake » Little Cottonwood Canyon » Maybird Gulch
Location Name or Route
Maybird
Weather
Sky
Broken
Weather Comments
Clear and calm at 0730 with no wind and temps very comfortable -10 C (13 F). Became overcast on exiting late morning with winds beginning to ramp up.
Snow Characteristics
New Snow Depth
8"
New Snow Density
Medium
Snow Surface Conditions
Powder
Snow Characteristics Comments

MLK storm snow has settled to 20 cms (8") new below about 10,000'

Storm snow was dense with ski pens of 10 cms in what appears to be mostly rimed stellars.

Red Flags
Red Flags
Recent Avalanches
Red Flags Comments
Saw quite a few natural avalanches that occurred during the MLK storm. These were all within the storm snow.
Avalanche Problem #1
Problem
Persistent Weak Layer
Trend
Increasing Danger
Problem #1 Comments

Really two persistent slab concerns: (1) Old slide paths that avalanched during the Christmas cycle (likely on 12/23) where the snowpack is thin and faceted, and (2) the layer of NSF that formed Jan 10/11/12 and is now buried 45-60 cms (18-24").

Given that we have had so many repeater avalanches, concern (1) seems to be the biggest problem right now. The challenge is that recent storms have made it hard to identify what has slid and what hasn't.

Am calling an increasing hazard with more snow and wind on the way.

Comments

Morning tour up into Maybird and staying below 10000'. Saw widespread evidence of natural avalanches that occurred during the high PI rates of the MLK storm. Predictably, the storm snow was not sensitive at all this morning.

Like most everyone else, am finding two areas of concern right now: thin/faceted slopes that slid during Christmas, and the layer of NSF that formed Jan 10/11/12 and is now buried 45-60 cms down.

Was not able to look at any snow today that had avalanched over Christmas, so can't comment on that, but clearly we've had lots of repeaters, and that structure is my biggest concern.

Did look at the Jan 10 - 12 faceted layer:

- looking under a lens, the grains do not look especially weak and am seeing some decomposing fragments mixed in with the near-surface facets. (This is consistent with what I have seen in several Millcreek tours the past several days.)

- the layer has compressed somewhat. Late last week I was finding a 3-5 cm layer, and today it was 2-3 cms. (This may be due to spatial variability as today was the first day I was in Maybird this season.)

- ECTN today with 20-25 taps

- Moderate shears, although clean and planar.

Still a 4-lemon scenario (maybe even 5 but didn't measure grain size). I did talk to someone who had skied a different ridge and they told me they saw a crown from a natural yesterday that was "probably 18", if so it perhaps ran on this faceted layer.

Regardless, still don't trust this layer and am guessing we haven't seen it reactive because we haven't put the right kind of slab on top as of yet.

Photos of sluffing on steeper aspects and bed surface showing the layer of near surface facets.

Today's Observed Danger Rating
Moderate
Tomorrows Estimated Danger Rating
Considerable