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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Monday, January 6, 2014

A MODERATE but isolated avalanche danger still exists for triggering a buried, persistent slab. Though isolated, this problem still exists on upper mid elevation slopes steeper than about 35 degrees that have a NW-NE aspect. Suspect areas down slope from ridge tops and beneath rock bands. There is also a MODERATE danger of triggering a loose snow avalanche on steep shady slopes, primarily at mid elevations, where the snow pack has been taken over by the faceting process. Elsewhere in the range, the avalanche danger is generally LOW.

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Special Announcements

This advisory is issued based on field observations taken over the weekend of January 4-5, and on weather observations taken on the morning of January 6. This advisory is to be used as a baseline for developing your own danger analysis during the upcoming week.

Weather and Snow

Sunday was cold and clear in the mountains, and winds continued to howl out of the NW, averaging 30 mph with gusts as high as 50 on Pre Laurel Peak. Overnight low temperatures were below zero but they've been climbing slow and steady to 9 degrees this morning. Daytime highs today will be in the upper 20's and winds should finally back off to about 10 mph from the NW.

La Sal Mountains

Strong northerly winds the past couple of days have added insult to injury to our already bruised and battered snow surface. Expect to find heavily wind damaged snow and breakable sun crusts out there. In sheltered, wooded areas, it is still possible to find re-crystallized "powder" conditions, though most of the pack in these areas has been taken over by facets. This equates to a pile of sugar where it is possible to sink right through to the ground. There is currently 21" on the ground at Geyser Pass Trailhead, and 33" in Gold Basin, but "spatial variability" best describes the distribution of snow throughout the range. Some wind and sun exposed areas show bare ground. Exposed ridge tops with northerly aspects have been scoured by northerly winds, but just down slope 100' or less, up to 4' of snow can be found. On sheltered, mid elevation slopes, average snow depth is 24-30".

Abajo Mountains

Low snow conditions prevail in the Abajos. Snow depths range from about 18"-24" of snow above about 10,000' on shady aspects. Bare ground is exposed on south facing slopes, and even east facing slopes with a slight southerly component are showing areas of exposed ground. Snow surface conditions are similar to those in the La Sals. The Snotel site at Camp Jackson is reporting 19" on the ground.

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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

It still may be possible to trigger a buried persistent slab though this danger is quite isolated. You are most likely to find these slabs on upper-mid elevation, NW-NE aspects steeper than 35 degrees, particularly in areas of rocky terrain. Because many of the ridge tops have been wind scoured, expect to find this problem further down slope. You will need to be alert to areas that have a smooth, rounded appearance. Be cautious of convexities, and watch out for isolated pockets on the lee sides of terrain features, and beneath rock bands. Of greater concern for the future is our existing snow pack. it consists of a variety of weak layers including buried surface hoar, depth hoar, facet/crust combinations, and areas where the entire pack has turned to faceted, sugary snow. This type of snow pack structure does not bode well for the future, and we are now playing a waiting game in anticipation of the next snow load.This snow pit from the top of Coyote Chute illustrates what we are dealing with.

Shears were found in the upper, buried surface hoar layer, and on a mid pack facet layer with a shovel shear test. A compression test produced a relatively stubborn failure of the entire pack on the buried depth hoar, CT14 Q3.

Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Much of the snow pack is turning into a pile of facets, or loose, weak, non-cohesive snow. This snow can sluff off as a pile of sand, entraining more snow as it goes. And though it most likely won't bury you, it can sweep you off your feet, carry you over a rock band, or onto a buried, persistent slab. This problem is most prevalent on steep shady slopes at upper mid elevations.

Additional Information

A series of weak, Pacific storm systems on a split flow will begin to affect our area by Tuesday night, bringing clouds and mostly unsettled conditions with a slight chance of snow developing by Wednesday and continuing through Friday.

Current wind and temperatures on Pre Laurel Peak.

Current temperature and new snow totals in Gold Basin.

Current wind and temperature on Abajo Peak.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 28. Wind chill values as low as -10. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon.
Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 15. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming south southwest after midnight.
Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 31. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16. West northwest wind 10 to 15 mph.
Wednesday: A 20 percent chance of snow after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 28. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west southwest in the morning.
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 17.
Thursday: A 20 percent chance of snow after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 28.
Thursday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14.
Friday: A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 25.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 15.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 32.

General Announcements

OBSERVATIONS: If you are out and about in the mountains, I'd love to know what you are seeing. Please submit your OBSERVATIONS HERE

LUNA GROOMING INFORMATION: All trails including the upper meadows at Geyser Pass and the road into Gold Basin are groomed and in excellent shape.

ROAD CONDITIONS: The road is clear with a mixture of bare dirt, and a packed surface of snow.

UAC MOBILE APP: Get your advisory on your iphone with this app

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