Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik for
Saturday, March 16, 2013

The overall avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE today for wet avalanches. Avoid being in confined terrain such as gullies, chutes and coliours as well as below steep avalanche paths. Get off of steep slopes as they become "punchy" during the day due to warming.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Weather and Snow

We've had very warm temperatures with overnight lows above freezing since at least Thursday night. This is drastically changing the snowpack and is contributing to making it unstable. Winds have been light to moderate from the west or southwest over the last 48 hours.

Here's a quick recap of the week. A storm last weekend produced 6 to 12 inches or more of medium to high density new snow. There was some northwest wind that followed and did drift the new snow somewhat. However, only scattered small new wind slab avalanches were noted in backcountry observations during the week. The new snow and wind did not overload any areas that contain deeper buried weak faceted (sugary) snow as far as we know. Last weekends new snow stayed cold on most aspects until mid day on Tuesday when the east, south and west aspects became damp from the sun. Warm temperatures at the lower elevations (below 8000') made the snowpack saturated and punchy. By Wednesday, every aspects and elevation except the highest steeper due north slopes had become damp. By mid day on Wednesday, many areas were getting so wet that the snowpack was becoming punchy enough to make skiing and sledding difficult. During the early morning hours Thursday and Friday (before 11am or so) the snow did have a melt-freeze crust which made for supportable travel.

DETAILS of a great observation from Darce Trotter and Steve Cote

DETAILS of my observations from earlier in the week

Recent Avalanches

No significant avalanche activity was noted or reported during the week. However, the warming had me quite concerned by the end of the day on Wednesday. When your track is starting to punch through to wet, unconsolidated snow, it's time to stay off of and out from below any steep slope. This is the first significant warming event of the season and it is making the weaker buried faceted snow unstable especially in the thinner snowpack areas.

Ad
Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

With slightly cooler temperatures today, it would make sense that we should have less chance for wet snow avalanches today. However, below the thin frozen crust you'll find this morning is damp, wet snow that may still become unstable as the day progresses. The key is to exit the mountains early before the snowpack becomes too unstable. Wet snow avalanching is tricky business and we often can't predict it very accurately but, the string of nights with temperatures well above freezing is an indicator that points to dangerous conditions. Avoid lingering below steep slopes especially if you can't see what's above you. Nearly half of wet snow avalanche fatalities are from natural avalanches that hit unsuspecting people.

Avalanche Problem #2
Cornice
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

During my time in the mountains this past week, I noted that many of the cornices have grown enough to be noteworthy since my last visit a few weeks ago. These monsters become more sensitive with the warming temperatures and are more likely to be triggered by people. It's best to avoid these things by not getting on top of them or lingering below them. Don't approach a ridge if you can't see that you're getting onto a cornice.

Additional Information

High temperatures today won't be as warm as on Friday but will still be into the upper 30s and low 40s along the ridges. Skies should clear a bit as the day progresses. Temperatures will start to cool tonight as a storm moves into our area for Sunday producing a shot of snow. It's not looking big, perhaps just a few inches of snow by Sunday night.

General Announcements

Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please participate in the creation of our own community avalanche advisory by submitting snow and avalanche conditions. You can call me directly at 801-231-2170, email [email protected], or email by clicking HERE

This is a great time of year to schedule a free avalanche awareness presentation for your group or club. You can contact me at 801-231-2170 or email [email protected]

Donate to your favorite non-profit –The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center. The UAC depends on contributions from users like you to support our work.

The information in this advisory is from the US Forest Service which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

This advisory will be updated by 7:00 AM Saturday, March 16th.