Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Max Forgensi
Issued by Max Forgensi for
Wednesday, March 6, 2013

The Bottom Line for Wednesday will be an Avalanche Danger of Moderate for the mountains of southeast Utah for wet loose point releases and persistent slabs. Careful evaluation of each slope is paramount as tour groups push deeper into the backcountry as the mountains round the corner towards spring.

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Learn how to read the forecast here
Weather and Snow

Warm temperatures below tree line and strong winds above tree line are expected in the La Sal and Abajo Mountains for the next couple of days before a winter storm impacts southeast Utah starting on Friday. Winds have been very strong out of the south and southeast on ridge tops and peaks in both ranges.

Gold Basin has 60" of snow on the ground, while the Geyser Pass Winter TH has 39" of snow on the ground where the temperatures stayed above freezing Tuesday night. Camp Jackson has 31" of snow on the ground. The La Sal Mountains are hovering just above normal for snow water equivalent (SWE) for this time a year while the Abajos are 35% below average. Southeast Utah is 21% below average SWE.

San Juan County was able to plow the roads to the trailheads and LUNA needs volunteers. Observations from the 4th of March lean towards the prevalence of sun affected snow in all but the most sheltered locations.

This advisory will be updated on SUNDAY morning. As spring continues to approach, advisories for the the Utah Avalanche Center in Moab will decrease to only two advisories a week due to funding and other duties as assigned.

Please NOWCAST by using our Mountain Weather Page if you are heading out. Also, remember that it is not spring, YET.

Recent Avalanches

For those who would like to take a look at observations posted across the La Sal and Abajo Mountains, click HERE. Thank you to everyone that keeps contributing!

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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
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Anywhere the sun is affecting the snow without any wind disturbance will be a likely area for wet loose point releases to occur across the ranges.

Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
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Likelihood
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As Brett Kobernick from the Utah Avalanche Center stated in the avalanche acccident report on the Manti-Skyline from this past weekend, he carefully observes slopes throughout the season, gathering a history of these slopes and monitoring the snow stability. If and only when these larger, prized lines have been carefully evaluated for good stability will he venture onto these slopes.

As we look towards spring, continue to observe and evaluate terrain that may be a future objective. Has there been natural avalanche activity? Are persistent weak layers present on these slopes? How are we going to travel through the terrain? What human factors and group dynamics will make for a successful tour?

Additional Information

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 48. Windy, with a south southwest wind 20 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 28. Breezy, with a south southwest wind around 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 44. Windy, with a south southwest wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph.

Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Breezy, with a south wind 15 to 20 mph.

Friday: Snow. High near 35. Breezy, with a south wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Friday Night: Snow. Low around 21. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

General Announcements

The Friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center are an important partner to the Utah Avalanche Center-Moab. They assist by providing field observers, maintaining weather stations and purchase weather and safety equipment. Go to our partners website at www.moabavalanche.org to donate today.

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