Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Max Forgensi
Issued by Max Forgensi on
Thursday morning, February 28, 2013

The Bottom Line for today will be an avalanche danger of Moderate for a myriad of avalanche problems in the La Sal and Abajo Mountains. Careful evaluation of each slope and aspect will be necessary to facilitate safe travel through avalanche terrain today.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Weather and Snow

High pressure and warmer temperatures are expected through southeast Utah for the latter part of the week, with a slight chance of snow moving back into the area by Sunday.

Spring just around the corner and the La Sal and Abajo Mountains are definitely starting to feel the effect of the sun being higher in the sky. The sun has and will continue to place sun crusts on south and west aspects. Cold snow will be found on sheltered north and east aspects, although the sun will be starting to affect exposed, lower angled slopes on these aspects as well.

San Juan County has been plowing the roads and LUNA volunteers packed down the tracks, although we will have to wait for some corduroy closer to the weekend.

The 2012-2013 winter season has been a banner year for the La Sal Mountains, which is 5% above average for snow water equivalent (SWE). The Abajos are still around 30% below average. There is 44" of snow at the Geyser Pass Winter TH on the ground. Coverage in the La Sals is dependable.

Recent Avalanches

No reports coming in the past couple of days.

For those who would like to take a look at observations posted across the La Sal and Abajo Mountains, click HERE. Thank you to everyone that keeps contributing!

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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Moderate winds out of the north and northwest continue to move snow around at and above treeline, yet low relative humidities will trend for this newly wind transported snow to sublimate to the atmosphere.

The active pattern from earlier in the week is getting farther away, allowing for wind slabs formed during those snow and wind events to become less apt to avalanche naturally and more stubborn for human triggered avalanches.

Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

There is still concern for triggering persistent slabs. The pre-frontal winds from February 19th, allowed for a definitive dust mark in some areas of the La Sal Mountains. Not only have facets developed below this layer, there is a layer of buried near surface facets (old recycled snow) associated with it. This weak layer is sandwiched between two harder snow layers. Buried less than a meter deep, this weak layer can be triggered from a backcountry enthusiast.

Avalanche Problem #3
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

As the day's warm up, there will be an increased chance of wet loose snow avalanches to occur naturally or be triggered from a backcountry traveler. Although smaller in size, these avalanche may push you into a terrain trap that could pose some risk.

Additional Information

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 27. North northeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 14. Northwest wind around 15 mph.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 33. North northeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 20. North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 41. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon.

General Announcements

The Friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center are an important partner to the Utah Avalanche Center-Moab. They assist by providing field observers, maintaining weather stations and purchase weather and safety equipment. Go to our partners website at www.moabavalanche.org to donate today.

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