The Bottom Line for Saturday will be an Avalanche Danger of Moderate for wind slabs and storm slabs on slopes greater than 35 degrees on all aspects and elevations.
Weather and SnowWinter conditions continue to reign in the La Sal and Abajo Mountains, while the desert tries to act more like spring. In the past 72 hours, the La Sal Mountains has received 10" (25 cm) at the Gold Basin Study Plot with only 0.4" of H20, making for highly transportable, light density snow to slide through. Camp Jackson in the Abajo's only received 0.1" of H20 during the same time frame.
Coverage is good, with over 50" (125 cm) of snow on the ground in Gold Basin, 39" (~ 100 cm) at the Geyser Pass Winter TH and 36" (90 cm) at Camp Jackson. With more snow forecasted to fall over the weekend, snow conditions will continue to be fresh and avalanche danger will be of concern. Expect high quality powder conditions on sheltered north and east aspects while on south and west aspects there will be fast skiing conditions as the light density powder is not deep enough to limit skiing on a mostly supportable crust. As a backcountry traveler heads above treeline, expect conditions to become more variable.
LUNA went up and groomed into Gold Basin twice on Friday (Thank you volunteers) and San Juan County was NOT able to get to the Geyser Pass Road before the weekend. 4WD will be necessary and chains could be useful.
Recent AvalanchesThere were plenty of sluffs observed on steep slopes greater than 35 degrees yesterday on all aspects.
For those who would like to take a look at observations posted across the La Sal and Abajo Mountains, click HERE. Thank you to everyone that keeps contributing!
The light density snow of yesterday will be the weak layer of today. One major observation from yesterday's tour was how "slippery" ski tracks were and the inverted density of the new storm snow (more dense over less dense). When you throw these factors in with winds that surfaced both in the La Sal and Abajo Mountains with average wind speeds greater than 10 hours/hour out of the west through NNW for over 12 hours, wind slabs will be the biggest concerns for travelers in avalanche terrain.
The winds have reduced in speed early Saturday morning, reducing the amount of active wind loading yet human triggered avalanches will be of concern. Pay particular attention to shooting cracks in front of your skis and identify convexities and wind pillows to avoid on the descent.
Our neighbors to our east, the Northern San Juans, continue to talk about dangerous deep slab instabilities that may "step down" to these layers due to surface avalanches such as storm snow or wind slabs. Human triggered avalanches continue to occur in the northern San Juans will little or no observable clues. This deserves some merit to anyone's decision making process in avalanche terrain.
Before this past week's storm, wind skins developed above treeline which were not very supportable and formed lower than expected in starting zones. Depth hoar is still and will continue to be a basal weak layer, especially in the La Sal's.
Storm snow instabilities may initiate an avalanche and entrain enough snow to trigger avalanches to weaknesses found in the mid or lower part of the snow pack.
Today: Scattered snow showers before 1pm, then snow showers likely between 1pm and 3pm, then snow showers with areas of blowing snow after 3pm. High near 31. Windy, with a southwest wind 10 to 20 mph increasing to 20 to 30 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Tonight: Snow showers with areas of blowing snow before 4am, then snow showers likely after 4am. Low around 9. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 25 mph becoming north after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Sunday: Snow showers likely, mainly before 9am. Partly sunny, with a high near 21. Blustery, with a north wind 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow before 10pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 0. Wind chill values as low as -15. West northwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming south in the evening.
Monday: Sunny, with a high near 20. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
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