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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty for
Saturday, February 23, 2013

The danger will easily reach CONSIDERABLE today with the storm. The difference here will be the wind. Both natural and human triggered avalanches will be likely, particularly in the steep wind loaded terrain...and most pronounced on north through east through south facing slopes at the mid and upper elevations. Remote triggering is a concern with today's rapid loading.

Safe and enjoyable riding can be found in sheltered shady terrain on lower angled slopes.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements

A Special Avalanche Bulletin has been issued for the Western Uintas for the weekend with the danger there reaching toward HIGH. Check the Uintas forecast for more details...

With the avalanche danger spiking this weekend, take a pass and hit some of our world class mountain resorts - or check out resorts you've never been to... with tickets still available at Beaver Mtn, Wolf Mountain, Sundance, and the Canyons. Stay safe and support the Utah Avalanche Center.

Weather and Snow

Skies are overcast and both temperatures and westerly winds have increased overnight. Temps are in the mid teens, winds along the high ridgelines are blowing 30 with gusts near 50. The winds are even punishing the mid-elevations with gusts to near 40. Just wait.

A vigorous cold front with some backbone is expected by mid-morning. We'll see gusty west to northwest winds and heavy snowfall during and after frontal passage, with temps diving down to the low single digits. Riding conditions remain quite good...and best on shady sheltered aspects where you're not bottom feeding on old sun and wind crusts beneath the most recent snow.

Times have changed friends - we've been riding the steep lines with impunity over the last week or so...but those days are gone. I expect periods of natural avalanching and hair-trigger wind slabs in the new snow by late morning.

Recent Avalanches

Some natural loose snow avalanching was noted yesterday, but seemed the exception and not the rule. I expect to fill this column tomorrow....

We've had two amazing full burials and live recoveries earlier this winter. Read about them on our accidents page. Practiced recently with your beacon and strategic probing and shoveling? No? Don't look at the debris pile and be filled with regret.

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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

We'll keep it simple. There is a lot of low density snow to be blown around. By late morning, you'll find hair-trigger wind slabs prevalent on steep north to east to south facing slopes at the mid and upper elevations. Crossloading - that is - drifting across slopes from sub-ridges into the lee gullies will be commonplace. Natural avalanches within the new snow will also be likely at times...and they'll easily run on low density snow sitting on recent sun and wind crusts or more angular grains formed over the past week on a variety of aspects.

Remote triggering (see below) - that is, slides triggered on approach - will be likely with today's rapid loading. CORNICES will be sensitive with today's loading as well.

As taken from our Avalanche Encyclopedia - Someone does not need to be on the avalanche to trigger the avalanche. Especially in a snowpack with high propagation potential, a person can initiate a fracture from some distance away. We call these “remote” triggers. It’s common to remotely trigger an avalanche from the ridge above a slope, a gentler slope next to the avalanche and especially from a flat or gentle area below the avalanche. Needless to say, if you remotely-trigger an avalanche, the snowpack is extremely unstable and you need to choose your routes very carefully.

Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Expected high snowfall rates and initial higher density snow will easily overload the pre-existing snow surfaces of cold smoke. Storm snow avalanches will be common in areas that see the highest rates of snowfall, with natural/spontaneous slides noted at times when rates exceed 2-3"/hour. Steep, confined terrain such as the many ice climbs in the canyons and steep couloirs are best avoided today.

Avalanche Problem #3
Loose Dry Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

This would be unexpected. Still...our long dormant persistent slabs with old buried weak faceted snow tend to spring back to life with the initial stress of snow/wind and human trigger. "Step down" avalanches - that is - new snow slides breaking down into these older layers from January are outside shots, but more likely in steep thin rocky snowpack areas on northwest through east facing terrain both at the mid and upper elevations. Collapsing is a good indicator here.

Additional Information

Frontal passage is expected by mid to late morning. Ahead of the front, we'll have a few higher density inches of snow accompanied by gusty westerly winds and temps in the mid teens. This will be a powerful front that means business...and we'll see plenty of blowing and drifting snow late morning into the afternoon. Lowering temperatures and densities will allow us to squeeze water from stone. I'd support 6-10" of new snow out of .4-.7" of snow water equivalent. The storm shifts northerly by the evening, shutting off good orographic support for most terrain...Sunday will still be overcast with light snow...

Another refresher looks to be on tap for Monday night into Tuesday with models suggesting rapid warming and a building ridge for next weekend.

General Announcements

Go to http://www.backcountry.com/utah-avalanche-center to get tickets from our partners at Beaver Mountain, Canyons, Sundance, and Wolf Mountain. All proceeds benefit the Utah Avalanche Center.

If you trigger an avalanche in the backcountry - especially if you are adjacent to a ski area – please call the following teams to alert them to the slide and whether anyone is missing or not. Rescue teams can be exposed to significant hazard when responding to avalanches, and do not want to do so when unneeded. Thanks.

Salt Lake and Park City – Alta Central (801-742-2033), Canyons Resort Dispatch (435-615-3322)

Ogden – Snowbasin Patrol Dispatch (801-620-1017)

Powder Mountain Ski Patrol Dispatch (801-745-3772 ex 123)

Provo – Sundance Patrol Dispatch (801-223-4150)

Dawn Patrol Forecast Hotline, updated by 05:30: 888-999-4019 option 8.

Twitter Updates for your mobile phone - DETAILS

Daily observations are frequently posted by 10 pm each evening.

Subscribe to the daily avalanche advisory e-mail click HERE.

UDOT canyon closures UDOT at (801) 975-4838

Wasatch Powderbird Guides does daily updates about where they'll be operating on this blog http://powderbird.blogspot.com/ .

Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please participate in the creation of our own community avalanche advisory by submitting snow and avalanche conditions. You can also call us at 801-524-5304 or 800-662-4140, or email by clicking HERE

Donate to your favorite non-profit –The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center. The UAC depends on contributions from users like you to support our work.

For a print version of this advisory click HERE.

This advisory is produced by the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. It describes only general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist. Specific terrain and route finding decisions should always be based on skills learned in a field-based avalanche class.

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