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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik for
Friday, February 22, 2013

The avalanche danger is MODERATE today. Watch for the winds to increase and form drifts which will probably be sensitive on the north through east through south facing steep slopes. Watch for crossloaded terrain features on windward slopes as well. Sluffing of the new low density snow should be considered as well.

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Avalanche Watch

We are anticipating that the avalanche danger will rise this weekend with the upcoming storm on Saturday which has strong winds and snow with it that could overload buried weak layers of snow and produce dangerous avalanches. Be sure to check avalanche advisories on Saturday and Sunday mornings before heading into the backcountry.

Weather and Snow

The winds have increased at the highest elevations with gusts near 40 but they still seem light in the mid elevations at this time. Temperatures are in the teens to single digits. A few more inches of low density snow fell in the last 24 hours. We haven't added that much water weight to the snowpack over the last couple of days.

Recent Avalanches

The low density snow was prone to 'sluffing' or loose snow avalanching on Thursday. Some of the piles of debris got somewhat sizeable but they didn't seem to be running really fast and were manageable for those with good avalanche experience. (PHOTO: Mark White. Sluffing shown from both during the storm on the left and skier triggered on the right.)

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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

I don't like the winds that are going to accompany the next storm. Without the winds, I think that we would be set up for another nice refresher and there would be excellent riding and powder skiing to be had without much worry. However, I believe that I will have to approach things more cautiously with this storm especially in areas that are holding weak preexisting snow such as thinner snowpack areas. There is plenty of weak snow around especially in the mid elevations where the pack is thinner. We just need enough of a slab to overload it. Also, the low density snow that fell and is falling could act as a weak layer but more importantly it will be quite susceptible to getting blown around into slabs. Winds will pick up a bit today and perhaps increase the danger a bit but will be more pronounced into the weekend.

Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Be aware that the new low density snow may still be prone to sluffing today. These loose snow avalanches probably won't pack much of a punch and shouldn't pose much of a threat if you're paying attention to them. Anticipate all steep slopes to sluff. Watch for wet sluffs as well if the sun tries to peak out at all.

Additional Information

We'll have cloudy skies and snow showers possible this morning with 2 to 4 inches of snow possible. Temperatures will get into the upper teens. Northwest ridgetop winds will increase a bit but probably won't get out of hand today. They get strong tonight and will be from the west. They continue through the morning on Saturday and we'll see snow showers. A cold front moves through mid day which should give us a good burst of snow. Winds will slow a bit but they still look a little stronger than I like as they switch more northwest. Cold air moves in later on Saturday and coupled with northwest flow, lake effect is possible but not a given. I'm thinking most areas should see 6 to 10 inches of snow with the Cottonwoods perhaps doing better depending on the lake effect.

General Announcements

Go to http://www.backcountry.com/utah-avalanche-center to get tickets from our partners at Park City, Beaver Mountain, Canyons, Sundance, and Wolf Mountain. All proceeds benefit the Utah Avalanche Center.

If you trigger an avalanche in the backcountry - especially if you are adjacent to a ski area – please call the following teams to alert them to the slide and whether anyone is missing or not. Rescue teams can be exposed to significant hazard when responding to avalanches, and do not want to do so when unneeded. Thanks.

Salt Lake and Park City – Alta Central (801-742-2033), Canyons Resort Dispatch (435-615-3322)

Ogden – Snowbasin Patrol Dispatch (801-620-1017)

Powder Mountain Ski Patrol Dispatch (801-745-3772 ex 123)

Provo – Sundance Patrol Dispatch (801-223-4150)

Dawn Patrol Forecast Hotline, updated by 05:30: 888-999-4019 option 8.

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Daily observations are frequently posted by 10 pm each evening.

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Wasatch Powderbird Guides does daily updates about where they'll be operating on this blog http://powderbird.blogspot.com/ .

Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please participate in the creation of our own community avalanche advisory by submitting snow and avalanche conditions. You can also call us at 801-524-5304 or 800-662-4140, or email by clicking HERE

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For a print version of this advisory click HERE.

This advisory is produced by the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. It describes only general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist. Specific terrain and route finding decisions should always be based on skills learned in a field-based avalanche class.

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