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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Saturday morning, February 16, 2013

There is a MODERATE (or level 2) danger in the backcountry. Heightened avalanche conditions exist, and you could trigger dangerous wind slab avalanches or cornice falls in terrain exposed to drifting from west winds. Loose wet avalanches are likely on sunny slopes and in steep lower elevation terrain with saturated surface snow. Although somewhat unlikely, you still might trigger large and dangerous persistent slab avalanches on isolated drifted slopes with poor snow structure. Evaluate the snow and terrain carefully, and continue to use safe travel protocols,

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow

It'll be a nice, mild and sunny day in the mountains. But a west wind is picking up steam on the ridges this morning, so also expect a cooling breeze up high. The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400' reports 24 degrees, and there is 57 inches of total snow containing 64% of average water content for the date. It's 21 degrees at the CSI Logan Peak weather station, and overnight west winds intensified, now averaging around 25 mph with gusts in the 30s. You can still find good fast shallow powder riding conditions in sheltered terrain, but sun, wind, and tracks are beginning to limit the better quality lower angled options, and you could trigger avalanches this weekend on steep slopes..

Recent Avalanches

No new avalanches were reported in the Logan Area Mountains since early last week.

Here's a link to our updated Avalanche List.

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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Expect to find stiff wind slabs and treacherous cornices in upper elevation terrain exposed to drifting from the increasing southwest winds. Avoid stiffer wind deposited snow on steep slopes, and watch for potential wind slabs in and around terrain features like sub-ridges, gullies, and cliff bands. Wind slabs are drifts that can appear chalky, rounded or bulging, and can sound hollow or drum-like. Be cautious along the ridges, since cornices might break further back than expected and cornice falls could trigger dangerous wind slab avalanches on slopes below.

Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Loose wet avalanches are likely on sunny slopes and in steep lower elevation terrain, especially if temperatures warm significantly down low due to solar warming or green-housing. Avoid and stay out from under steep slopes with saturated snow, as some natural activity is possible in very steep low elevation terrain Roller balls, pin-wheels, and sluffs are signs that the saturated snow on steep slopes is prone to avalanche.

Avalanche Problem #3
Loose Dry Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

A new load from recent drifting might reactivate the early January weak layer in some isolated areas. I've been finding very weak January faceted snow in many areas, but my recent tests have shown this layer to be rather non-reactive. There may be some exceptions in drifted terrain, and avalanches might fail 1 to 2 feet deep on weak faceted snow created during the drawn-out January high pressure systems. I'm also keeping a close eye on the small grained facet/rime layer that was on the surface during the cold early February high pressure and is now only shallowly buried by the recent accumulations. Steep, recently drifted, rocky, upper and mid elevation slopes with generally shallow and weak snow cover and recent wind loads are the most suspect today. Although the chances are slim, you might trigger dangerous persistent slab avalanches in some areas remotely, from a distance or worse, from below.

Additional Information

Clearing and high pressure conditions will develop today, but only persist for the first part of the weekend. Expect mostly clear skies today in the mountains, with 9000' high temperatures around 34 degrees and southwest winds. We'll see increasing clouds overnight and clouds and a bit of snow tomorrow, with 1 to 3 inches of accumulation possible. Looks like mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures in the mountains again on Monday, but the next chance for significant snow comes in the middle of next week, with what at this point looks like a substantially larger, longer lasting, and colder system pushing into the Great Basin Tuesday and bringing storminess and snow to the region through the remainder of the work week....

Check out the new Logan Mountain Weather page...

General Announcements

The infamous annual CROWBAR backcountry ski race is scheduled for Saturday, February 23 in Beaver Creek Canyon. Click HERE for more details...

For a printer friendly version of this advisory click HERE

Remember your information from the backcountry can save lives. If you see or trigger an avalanche, or see anything else we should know about, please send us your snow and avalanche observations. You can also call us at 801-524-5304 or email by clicking HERE. In the Logan Area you can contact Toby Weed directly at 435-757-7578.

I will update this advisory on Monday, Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday mornings by around 7:30...

This advisory is produced by the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. It describes only general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.