The Bottom Line for Saturday will be and Avalanche Danger of Moderate for persistent slabs on NW-N-NE-E-SE slopes at and above treeline and wind slabs above treeline on southerly aspects.
Weather and SnowPresident's Day weekend appears to have some wonderful weather on tap to both enjoy the mountains and the desert. The roads and trailheads have been plowed by San Juan County and LUNA volunteers continue to crank out beautiful corduroy. Temperatures in the La Sal and Abajo Mountains have been quite cold for this time of year and winds have been surfacing only above treeline.
This translates into really good skiing conditions across decently covered terrain at and below treeline. The only caveat to that statement would be any south or west aspect below treeline which receives numerous hours of solar gain. Expect breakable to supportable crusts in steeper and sunnier location on those aspects. The further you go up in elevation, the higher the probability that a descent will encounter numerous snow conditions, from sastrugi, supportable and/or breakable wind crusts and settled powder in sheltered locations.
The word for the weekend is "LOADED". There has been some recent avalanche activity that points to instability and there are plenty of plump looking slopes that look very enticing. It is time to start looking towards those larger, prouder lines...spring is just around the corner. Exploration into the mountains has been paying off yet remember...every slope needs to be carefully evaluated for stability.
For those who would like to take a look at observations posted across the La Sal and Abajo Mountains, click HERE. Thank you to everyone that keeps contributing!
For those heading out the next couple of days, go to our Mountain Weather Page to NOWCAST current weather conditions and snow totals.
Recent AvalanchesTodays short tour noted recent avalanche activity in Exxon's Folly, which may have protected a popular ascent of Tuk No. The Pencil Chute in Dory Canyon slid at treeline and in appears Noriega's Face had some avalanche activity during the last storm. All three of these natural avalanches occurred on north facing aspects, ranged in the R2D2 land and occurred at and below treeline.
Human triggered avalanches are possible on the shady side of the compass for the persistent slab. January's near surface facet factory could be a culprit. More evaluation will be necessary to verify this statement during tours to these locations next week.
Wind slabs with a myriad of thicknesses will continue to gain strength as the winds die down and the sun gets to them on these aspects. Worthy to note: If one of these wind slabs did break off, although more than likely relatively small, they could push a backcountry traveler into a place or terrain trap they would not want to go or hit.
Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 41. West wind around 10 mph.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 23. South southwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Sunday: A 10 percent chance of snow after 5pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 42. South southwest wind 10 to 15 mph.
Sunday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Northwest wind around 15 mph.
Washington's Birthday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 34.
The Friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center are an important partner to the Utah Avalanche Center-Moab. They assist by providing field observers, maintaining weather stations and purchase weather and safety equipment. Go to our partners website at www.moabavalanche.org to donate today.
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