Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Max Forgensi
Issued by Max Forgensi for
Thursday, February 14, 2013

The Bottom Line for today will be an Avalanche Danger of Considerable for wind slabs above treeline on SW-S-SE-E aspects above treeline. Cross loading will be a concern. With active wind loading, any new wind slabs or cornices will be sensitive to a backcountry travelers weight. Our avalanche problem is very elevation specific. A field day is in order on Friday to verify this statement.

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Special Announcements

Thank you everyone who submitted observations the past couple of days! Keep them coming in! By the looks of it, conditions were pretty good!

For those who would like to take a look at these observations across the La Sal and Abajo Mountains, click HERE

Weather and Snow

Say so long to the superb skiing conditions of the early work week where limited wind and cold temperatures kept skiing conditions good and avalanche danger at bay. Hopefully everyone capitalized on the situation instead of being sick on the couch the past couple of days.

Valentine's Day is a different story. Strong winds out of the NW-NNW both in the La Sal and Abajo Mountains have been and will be actively transporting snow at and above treeline, increasing avalanche danger and creating variable snow conditions. This wind is supposed to continue throughout Friday before finally tapering off on Saturday.

The roads have been plowed to the trailheads and LUNA has been grooming the track, although this wind has definitely transported some snow onto the corduroy.

For those thinking about spring, think snow! Basin wide, southeast Utah is 13% below normal for snow water equivalent (SWE). The La Sals are 6% above average but the Abajos are 23% below average.

For those heading out the next couple of days, go to our Mountain Weather Page to NOWCAST current weather conditions and snow totals.

Recent Avalanches

No new avalanche activity to report, although I expect some natural avalanche activity to occur due to active wind loading.

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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Wind slabs will be the most sensitive avalanche problem in the La Sal and Abajo Mountains today and tomorrow as the wind scours off the fetch areas with west, northwest and north aspects and deposits them on leeward sides of slopes and ridges. High(er) relative humidities will keep the snow local and limit sublimation to the atmosphere.

Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Persistent slabs continue to linger at and just below treeline locations on northerly aspects. Careful evaluation will be necessary when deciding to ski slopes greater than 35 degrees in these areas.

Additional Information

Today: A 20 percent chance of snow before 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 31. North wind 5 to 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 12. North northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 30. Blustery, with a north wind 5 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 18. North wind 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 37. Light and variable wind becoming west southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 22.

General Announcements

The Friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center are an important partner to the Utah Avalanche Center-Moab. They assist by providing field observers, maintaining weather stations and purchase weather and safety equipment. Go to our partners website at www.moabavalanche.org to donate today.

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