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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed for
Friday, February 8, 2013

There is a MODERATE (level 2) danger in the backcountry. Heightened avalanche conditions exist, and you could trigger large unmanageable and potentially deadly avalanches on isolated slopes, mainly on drifted slopes at upper elevations. Wind slab avalanches are also possible in drifted upper elevation terrain, and recent drifting from south and southeast winds may enhance the danger of persistent slab avalanches in some areas. Loose wet avalanches are possible on slopes with moist or saturated snow at lower elevations. Evaluate the snow and terrain carefully, use safe travel protocols, and make conservative decisions regarding your route.

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Weather and Snow

The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400' reports 23 degrees, there is 55 inches of total snow, and 65% of average water content for the date. It's 21 degrees at the CSI Logan Peak weather station, and south winds intensified overnight, with 30 mph+ hourly average wind speeds from the south-southeast. The best snow conditions are found in sheltered shady terrain, where you might find some nice fast re-crystallized powder and sparkly frost crystals or surface hoar. Most areas sport less desirable conditions, with breakable sun-crusts on sunny slopes, rime-crust at upper elevations, and wind-jacked snow in exposed terrain..

Recent Avalanches

Locally; Riders remote triggered a large and dangerous avalanche in a popular area above the Tony Grove Lake Campground over the weekend, I think on Sunday. The unreported 2' deep avalanche on a steep north-northeast facing slope at around 8400' in elevation was at least 250' wide, and it ran violently through thick trees down into the campground. Link HERE. and check out the video. A party of riders on Wednesday encountered a large recent hard slab avalanche in Christmas Tree Bowl just north of Naomi Peak. The 3' deep and 200' wide avalanche was on a southeast facing slope at around 9500' in elevation. ..... click HERE

Here's a link to our updated Avalanche List.

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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Avalanches might fail 1 to 3 feet deep on weak faceted snow created during the drawn-out January high pressure systems. The danger is pockety, meaning many slopes are fairly stable, but slopes with unstable snow exist and are interspersed. Slopes that were heavily tracked in early January, when the weak layer was forming, tend to be more stable than slopes that were largely untracked, giving us a false sense of stability in more popular areas. In these conditions, you could trigger avalanches in some areas remotely, from a distance or worse, from below. Audible collapsing or whumpfing, recent avalanches, and cracking are red flags indicating instability... A new load from the incoming storm could reactivate the now deeply buried January weak layer, and the danger of deep slab avalanches will increase over the weekend.

Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

New stiff wind slabs formed in exposed upper elevation terrain with last night's sustained south winds. Avoid fresh drifts on steep slopes, and watch for potential wind slabs in and around terrain features like sub-ridges, gullies, and cliff bands. Drifted snow is generally much stiffer than surrounding snow, and drifts can appear chalky, rounded or bulging, and can sound hollow or drum-like. Hard wind slabs have the nasty tendency to allow you to get out on them before releasing.

Avalanche Problem #3
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Loose wet avalanches are possible, mostly at lower elevations on steep slopes with moist or saturated surface snow.....

Additional Information

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning from noon today through late Sunday night. A long duration snow event will bring heavy snow to the mountains and periods of heavy snow to the valleys as well. There will be breaks in the snowfall, but most areas in the state will be affected by this storm. Expect 1 to 2 feet of accumulation in the mountains... High temperatures at around 8500' in elevation are expected to be around 36 degrees, and there will be a moderate south wind, shifting around from the east this afternoon.. Snow is likely, with 1 to 3 inches of accumulation forecast by evening. Heavier snowfall will occur overnight, with continuing east winds. The winds with shift around from the northwest tomorrow, with continuing heavy snowfall in the mountains. 13 to 23 inches of accumulation is forecast in the mountains by tomorrow evening. Lighter snowfall is expected to continue in the mountains through the weekend.

Check out the new Logan Mountain Weather page...

General Announcements

The infamous annual CROWBAR backcountry ski race is scheduled for Saturday, February 23 in Beaver Creek Canyon. Click HERE for more details...

For a printer friendly version of this advisory click HERE

Remember your information from the backcountry can save lives. If you see or trigger an avalanche, or see anything else we should know about, please send us your snow and avalanche observations. You can also call us at 801-524-5304 or email by clicking HERE. In the Logan Area you can contact Toby Weed directly at 435-757-7578.

I will update this advisory on Monday, Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday mornings by around 7:30...

This advisory is produced by the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. It describes only general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.

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