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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Issued by Bruce Tremper for
Monday, February 4, 2013

Continue to avoid (or be very suspicious of) slopes above about 9,000' steeper than about 33 degrees that face the north half of the compass, plus southeast. There is a Considerable danger (orange or Level 3) on these slopes.

You can always find safer terrain on slopes less steep than 30 degrees that are not locally-connected to steeper terrain.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Recent Avalanches

We've had avalanches in the news lately. Yesterday 3 more human triggered avalanches occurred in the Salt Lake area mountains. The most serious was a complete burial and the person was not breathing when they were quickly extricated after a beacon recovery. This was a very steep, north facing shot in the Silver Fork Headwall. (see report). A partial burial near No-Name Bowl along the Park City ridge line (see report). Finally, the 6th snowboarder on a slope was caught and carried on a steep, east-facing slope in American Fork in the Mary Ellen drainage but stopped on a bench and was on the surface (see report).

There have been 11 human triggered avalanches since January 31st, many of them very large and dangerous. See my blog entry for further pontificating on them.

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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

What to call this beast, a "persistent" slab or a "deep" slab? Is it Moderate danger or Considerable danger? I don't know the answers to these questions and neither do the rest of our forecasters. As I said, read my blog for the full discussion. Of the 11 human triggered avalanches over the last 4 days, most have occurred in terrain rated as Considerable (orange or Level 3) on our danger rose. The danger ratings are based on BOTH probability and consequences. Most of the avalanches have been difficult to trigger but large and dangerous, but we have seen a disconcerting few that were more garden-variety medium avalanches that were easy to trigger. It could be that warming is exacerbating this problem as well so the danger may actually be getting worse instead of better.

Regardless, the problem is not going away very quickly and I will continue to keep my slope angles gentle in the upper elevation, shady aspects (plus southeast). I've never cared for the game of Russian Roulette, which does not present very good long term prospects.

Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Continue normal caution in other terrain. Watch for outlier persistent slabs that may exist at lower elevations and off-aspect. And, as usual, get off of, and out from underneath, steep slopes when they get soggy in the heat of the day.

Additional Information

We should see some mid and high level clouds today with ridge top winds 5-20 mph from the west and northwest. Daytime temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30's again with overnight lows in the teens or twenties.

For the extended forecast, we have a weak system on Wednesday that will increase winds but probably not much snow, and it will cool temperatures into the teens and single digits. We have a stronger system for Friday and the weekend that should give us some light snow showers but this system is mostly digging south of us, so confidence is low.

General Announcements

Go to http://www.backcountry.com/utah-avalanche-center to get tickets from our partners at Park City, Beaver Mountain, Canyons, Sundance, and Wolf Mountain. All proceeds benefit the Utah Avalanche Center.

If you trigger an avalanche in the backcountry - especially if you are adjacent to a ski area – please call the following teams to alert them to the slide and whether anyone is missing or not. Rescue teams can be exposed to significant hazard when responding to avalanches, and do not want to do so when unneeded. Thanks.

Salt Lake and Park City – Alta Central (801-742-2033), Canyons Resort Dispatch (435-615-3322)

Ogden – Snowbasin Patrol Dispatch (801-620-1017)

Powder Mountain Ski Patrol Dispatch (801-745-3773 ex 123)

Provo – Sundance Patrol Dispatch (801-223-4150)

Dawn Patrol Forecast Hotline, updated by 05:30: 888-999-4019 option 8.

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Daily observations are frequently posted by 10 pm each evening.

Subscribe to the daily avalanche advisory e-mail click HERE.

UDOT canyon closures UDOT at (801) 975-4838

Wasatch Powderbird Guides does daily updates about where they'll be operating on this blog http://powderbird.blogspot.com/ .

Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please participate in the creation of our own community avalanche advisory by submitting snow and avalanche conditions. You can also call us at 801-524-5304 or 800-662-4140, or email by clicking HERE

Donate to your favorite non-profit –The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center. The UAC depends on contributions from users like you to support our work.

For a print version of this advisory click HERE.

This advisory is produced by the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. It describes only general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist. Specific terrain and route finding decisions should always be based on skills learned in a field-based avalanche class.

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