Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Max Forgensi
Issued by Max Forgensi for
Friday, February 1, 2013

The Bottom Line for today will be an Avalanche Danger of Moderate across the La Sal and Abajo ranges for persistent slabs, wet loose avalanches and wind slabs. Any backcountry skier heading to slopes steeper than 35 degrees need to evaluate the slope for conditions that may be triggered from your party. The snow structure and strength of the snow pack point towards conditions that human triggered avalanches are possible.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements

High clouds will dominate the forecast area today bringing a slight chance of snow. The biggest affect will be limiting daytime heating and solar gain on south and west aspects.

I believe that human factors will be the biggest concern on Sunday when it comes to decision making on where and when and how to travel through avalanche terrain. The natural avalanche cycle and the last real snow/wind event is a week in the past. Touring parties are pushing deeper into the backcountry which is great yet remember to make careful evaluation of slopes for persistent weak layers. Our neighbors in the Northern San Juans are still producing numerous avalanches, both human triggered and by explosives on these persistent weak layers.

Evaluate terrain to avoid and/or trigger points that may hold higher risk. Make these decisions as a TEAM!

Weather and Snow

After a much needed dose of water this past weekend, the skies are clear and the valleys are warming across southeast Utah. Down in the Abajos, the Camp Jackson SNOTEL received 2.5" of water in the past seven days, bringing the base up to 34" while still being 20% below average in snow water equivalent (SWE).

In the La Sal Mountains, Gold Basin received just over 18" (41 cm) of snow during the last storm event where the snow stake registers 48" (120 cm). The Geyser Pass Winter TH has 34" of snow on the ground. The La Sal Mountains are 10% above normal for SWE.

San Juan County has been busy plowing the roads and parking lots for this weekend. Thank you San Juan County! LUNA volunteers has packed out the entire Nordic trail system into Gold Basin and over Geyser Pass including the Lasaloppet loops.

Snow quality in the backcountry is pretty decent currently, holding cold supportable snow conditions on north and east aspects. South and west aspects started to get a bit heavy on Thursday and will start to form sun crusts of varying strengths the next couple of days.

Recent Avalanches

Observations from Thursday's tour included some recent avalanche activity, mostly confined to North and East aspects throughout all elevations. The NE shoulder of Mt. Tuk, East face of Red Snow Cirque, an East aspect in the Snaggle-Tooth chutes and small pockets in upper Dory Canyon.

Please submit your observations at the Utah Avalanche Center's website under the DETAILED INFO menu if you see or trigger any avalanches.

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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

The long period of high pressure preceding last weekend's storm not only created faceted snow grains on the snow surface, but was also able to drive the faceting process lower in the snow pack. Stability tests on Thursday showed that these weak layers are now buried and reactive. Compression and Extended Column tests yielded moderate results with quality (Q2) shears. There is definitely a few layers 1 to 2 feet down that may be triggered from a skier's weight on NW-NE-SE aspects.

I believe the snow surface before the storm was the weak layer that failed during the storm cycle on these aspects.

Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Wet snow sluffs will be possible on steep sunny aspects starting around noon as solar gain heats these slopes up. Look for rollerballs and point releases starting from cliff bands or underneath trees.

The differences between snow temperatures could really ice up your bases or skins. Have the appropriate wax in your arsenal.

Avalanche Problem #3
Deep Slab
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Top-Loaded or cross-loaded wind slabs may be a concern at and above treeline. Wind slabs, especially cross-loaded wind slabs are a concern because they are unsupportable with facets buried underneath them.

Additional Information

Today: Sunny, with a high near 35. West wind around 5 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 21. West northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 38. Calm wind becoming west northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 26. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 39. North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south in the morning.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 24.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 40.

General Announcements

The Friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center has been an important partner for the Utah Avalanche Center-Moab for over 20 years. The Friends provide field observers, maintain three weather stations in the La Sal and Abajo Mountains and provide monetary support for the UAC-Moab. If you are interested in donating to this non-profit, go to their website at: www.moabavalanche.org today.

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