Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Max Forgensi
Issued by Max Forgensi for
Monday, January 28, 2013

The Bottom Line for today will be an avalanche danger of Considerable for newly deposited wind slabs and persistent slabs on or beneath any avalanche terrain. Traveling below avalanche terrain is not advised. Pay attention to Mother Nature's clues, choose safe terrain options for the conditions and adhere to safe travel protocol.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Weather and Snow

Put your back country brains back on, plenty of new snow with unrelenting winds have increased the avalanche danger in theLa Sal and Abajo mountain ranges. In the past 72 hours, Camp Jackson SNOTEL in the Abajos have received 2.2" of water content with only 12" of new snow. The La Sal Mountains have received 1.4" of water and 9" of snow at the Geyser Pass Winter TH in the same time frame, while the Gold Basin Study Plot has received 14" of snow. There is 32" of snow at the trailhead while Gold Basin has 46" (115 cm).

Not only did it snow, the wind blew...hard. For the past 24 hours, the winds have been consistently blowing out of the south and southwest averaging between 15 and 40 mph, with gusts up to 62 mph.

These two red flag weather phenomena has increased the avalanche danger and made travel to the trailheads next to impossible. I expect that San Juan County will get the plows to the mountains once they have their primary and secondary roads in good order.

LUNA packed down the Gold Basin Road yesterday, I would wait for the second round of snow showers to blow through before they are able to stamp out some corduroy.

Recent Avalanches

Observers yesterday noted slides on the north facing Exxon's Folly and Noriega's Face. These are really the only slide paths visible when visibility is compromised. Due to the near surface faceting and a long high pressure spell, I would expect avalanche activity to be widespread. Here is an observation from a tour on Sunday HEREhttp://utahavalanchecenter.org/observations/observation-168

Ad
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Wind slabs will be the biggest concern for today. High relative humidities is keeping the snow very local. Expect cornice development, cross loading and sensitive wind slabs on leeward sides of slopes and ridges.

Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Persistent slabs (old wind slabs and soft slabs overlying faceted grains near the ground) will be a concern in lower elevations where the heavy new snow may tip the balance.

Additional Information

Snow and wind is in the forecast until Wednesday.

General Announcements

The Utah Avalanche Center is on Facebook! Become a friend today.