Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed for
Sunday, January 27, 2013

This morning there is a MODERATE (or level 2) avalanche danger, heightened avalanche conditions exist, and triggered wind slab and persistent slab avalanches are possible on drifted mid and upper elevation slopes in the backcountry. Wet avalanches are possible at lower elevations on slopes with saturated snow. Heavy snowfall and strong winds today will create a rising danger and dangerous avalanche conditions may develop. The danger is likely to rise to CONSIDERABLE (or level 3) on some drifted slopes by this afternoon. Some natural activity is possible especially during periods of heavy snowfall, and triggered wind slab and persistent slab avalanches will become more likely. Avoid and stay out from under steep slopes with significant accumulations of drifted snow or warm saturated snow. Evaluate the snow and terrain carefully, and continue to practice safe travel protocols.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow

The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400' reports an inch of new snow early this morning. It's 28 degrees, there is 49 inches of total snow, and 64% of average water content for the date. The 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station reports 22 degrees and overnight south winds averaging in the lower teens and single digits. A winter storm will mix the stale air out of the valleys today, while creating a rising avalanche danger and potentially dangerous avalanche conditions on steep slopes in the backcountry.

Recent Avalanches

A rider triggered a good sized soft slab avalanche in Miller Bowl, south of Tony Grove Lake Friday afternoon. The 200' wide by around 14" deep avalanche released below the rider as he was side-hilling on a steep north facing slope at around 8600' in elevation. Nobody was caught. A natural wet avalanche cycle occurred in the past couple days at lower elevations in Logan Canyon, with loose wet avalanches hitting the Logan River several times, the Logan River Trail, and Hwy 89 in the Dugway area.

Here's a link to our updated avalanche list...

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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Triggered wind slab avalanches around one-foot -deep are possible on drifted upper and mid elevation slopes this morning. Intensifying winds from the southwest will shift around from the northwest, increasing further in the afternoon, and snowfall will be heavy at times. I expect significant drifting in exposed terrain with today's storm, and developing sensitive wind slabs. Watch for and avoid stiffer fresh wind slabs on the lee side of major ridges and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, sub-ridges, gullies, and scoops. Potential wind slabs are drifts that often appear smooth or rounded and chalky looking, and they sometimes sound rather hollow. Cracking and audible collapsing are red flags, and reevaluation of your route is recommended if you encounter these conditions.

Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Avalanches will likely fail on very weak snow on either side of the shallowly buried January 8 rime-crust, which is intact and fairly widespread in the region. The preexisting snow on shady mid elevation slopes is especially weak, and avalanches could occur in unexpected areas on slopes approaching or steeper than 35 degrees. Heavy snowfall and strong winds are likely to add significant weight to the fragile snowpack and the danger of persistent slab avalanches will increase accordingly throughout the day. Dangerous avalanche conditions may develop in some areas by afternoon. In these conditions you could trigger avalanches remotely, from a distance or worse, from below.

Avalanche Problem #3
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Wet avalanches at lower elevations created quite a problem in the past couple days in the Logan Canyon Area. Lower elevation snow that has been kept very cold by the recent long lasting temperature inversion has warmed significantly and is completely saturated. Wet avalanches will again be possible on many steep slopes today. Avoid steep lower and mid elevation slopes with saturated snow, and stay clear of potential terrain traps like gullies, creek beds, or trees below.

Additional Information

A winter storm will mix the foul air out of Cache Valley today. 5 to 9 inches of accumulation is forecast in the mountains today, with intensifying southwest winds shifting around from the northwest and strengthening further in the afternoon. Temperatures will reach a high of near 30 degrees in the late morning then drop off in the afternoon. Snow will continue tonight with an additional 3 to 7 inches of snow forecast. The stormy weather will continue through the next few days in a moist northwest flow, with snow forecast for Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday in the mountains. High pressure conditions are expected to return to the region later in the week....

Check out the new Logan Mountain Weather page...

General Announcements

Remember your information from the backcountry can save lives. If you see or trigger an avalanche, or see anything else we should know about, please send us your snow and avalanche observations. You can also call us at 801-524-5304 or email by clicking HERE. In the Logan Area you can contact Toby Weed directly at 435-757-7578.

I will update this advisory on Monday, Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday mornings by around 7:30...

This advisory is produced by the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. It describes only general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.