Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Max Forgensi
Issued by Max Forgensi for
Saturday, January 26, 2013

The Bottom Line for today will be an Avalanche Danger of Considerable on all aspects and elevations in the La Sal and Abajo Mountains. Warm temperatures and a wet snow/rain mix up to 10,000' will cause new snow to fail on older faceted snow surfaces and crusts while also tipping the balance of persistent slabs resting on the shady side of the compass. Avalanche activity will be possible on steep slopes greater than 34 degrees.

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Special Announcements

On Saturdays tour, the storm started to roll into the La Sal Mountains. Here is an OBSERVATION from the day, using the Colorado Avalanche Information Center's Observation Database. Gold Basin has accumulated 4" of snow during Storm #10.

Heads up in the Abajo Mountains on Sunday. 0.9" of water has fallen during Saturday, with only 4" of snow. This heavy, wet snow will be an issue for anyone heading up North Creek.

The southern half of the forecast area has received more precipitation while both the La Sal Mountains and Moab has received 0.30" of H20 throughout the day on Saturday.

This forecast will be updated Sunday Night.

Weather and Snow

It appears that the La Sal and Abajo mountains are about to get a much needed dose of winter in the form of a rain/snow mix today up to at least the 10,000' level. Rain has been falling at the Camp Jackson SNOTEL in the Abajos and wet snow is spitting out at the Geyser Pass Winter TH. Hopefully this winter storm will bring southeast Utah closer to normal snow water equivalent values, the basin is 27% below average currently.

Expect road conditions to be slick and LUNA's corduroy to be covered by an inch or two of wet snow. Reports coming in from the back country yesterday speak of collapsing and whoomphing, iced up skins and slow skiing conditions.

Regardless, if you wanted to get exercise your best bet would be to get out of the dreary valleys and up into the mountains!

Recent Avalanches

There has been no avalanche activity reported, although I expect that it will not take much of this new heavy snow to tip get our current snow on the ground to avalanche AT ALL aspects and AT ALL elevations.

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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

The La Sal and Abajo Mountains are in line to receive a large amount of wet, heavy snow in comparison to the cold, weak and faceted snow currently sitting on the ground. Since the beginning of January, our snow has primarily been getting weaker and developing crusts and surface hoar on the snow surface, dependent on aspect. The more time between storms in the winter usually means a larger avalanche cycle.

Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Persistent slabs that have been stubborn on the shady side of the compass now have a couple of new stresses on them. First, the new snow (or rain) weight, secondly the differences in the properties of elasticity. Whereas the old snow is cold and brittle, the new snow is warm and more elastic which will creep and stretch with gravity more than the lower layers and will allow for a human trigger to become much easier.

Additional Information

Today: Snow. High near 35. South wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Tonight: Snow. Low around 23. Southwest wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Sunday: Snow. High near 37. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Sunday Night: Snow. Low around 24. Breezy, with a southwest wind 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

Monday: Snow. High near 31. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

General Announcements

The Friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center has been an important partner to the Utah Avalanche Center - Moab for over 20 years by providing field observers, weather instrumentation and help maintaining three weather stations in the La Sal and Abajo Mountains. Please donate towards this critical non-profit at their website, moabavalanche.org.

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