Ad
The National Forest Service Logo
icon-add Observation
Forecasts
Logan Ogden Salt Lake Provo Uintas Skyline Moab Abajos Weather Archives How to read the forecast
Observations & Avalanches
Submit Observation NEW - Observations Explorer All Observations Avalanches Fatalities Place Names Map Archives
Education
Avalanche Awareness Develop Skills On-Snow Courses Resources and Tutorials
Events
Store
About
Contact Who we are Core Values Staff Board of Directors Past Forecasters Sponsors Annual Reports Sign In
Blog
icon-add Observation
Donate / Join

Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty for
Thursday, January 10, 2013

It will be a day of rising danger and changing conditions. We'll start out with pockets of MODERATE danger centered on any localized new wind drifts, loose wet snow on the steep mid and lower elevation shady aspects, and the isolated and off chance of triggering a 2-3' deep slab into old snow in shady, shallow snowpack areas. Heavy snowfall rates and strong and gusty winds by mid-afternoon will likely push the danger toward CONSIDERABLE through tomorrow. Stay tuned.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements

There is a Free Fireside Avalanche Chat at Black Diamond with Brett tonight, focusing on a season review of weather and avalanches so far, and how to approach big terrain after persistent weak layers have been present.

Weather and Snow

The pre-frontal winds are blowing with reckless abandon. They picked up yesterday afternoon out of the south and southwest with gusts into the 50s. They'll continue to honk in the 30-35mph range with gusts into the 50s and 60s. The most exposed anemometers in the Ogden mountains have hourly averages in the 50-60mph range with gusts into the 80s. Temperatures remain mild with ridgetop temps in the upper 20s. Mid and low elevation temps are in the upper 30s and low 40s. Riding conditions remain pretty good- if riding a wide track, skis, or board, you'll hardly notice Tuesday's zipper rime crust.

Recent Avalanches

A snowmobiler riding up a steep north facing slope on Lewis Peak, elevation 9200', (west of Coalville and up Tollgate Canyon) triggered a hard slab avalanche 3' deep and 100' wide. No one was caught or carried...but it looks like two snowmobilers up in Providence canyon in Logan weren't so lucky. Initial reports are that two young sledders triggered a hard slab avalanche, lost their sleds, and walked out in the dark. Toby Weed, our forecaster in Logan will head out today to take a look and gather info for an avalanche involvement report. Lastly, we had more reports of roof-a-lanches shedding their holiday snow and some reports of loose wet and dry avalanches in steep northerly terrain.

Photo of Lewis Peak slide, courtesy Willem Groot

Ad
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

What's the old saying, 'You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time..." - years ago, despite strong southerly winds, I quickly dismissed the potential for wind slabs due to the rime crust that I felt sure capped and protected the loose snow below.

To be sure, melt-freeze, wind, and rime crusts abound; still I feel that the stronger winds will eat away at some of the Jan 8th 1-2mm rime crusts and quickly transport snow in the more exposed terrain. Even gusty winds in the canyons will be something to consider when looking for transported snow in mid-elevation cross-loaded gullies and deceleration zones as well.

Avalanche Problem #3
Loose Dry Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

The outlier. Interesting to contrast the heavily bumped-out Wasatch backcountry with tracks in nearly every unimaginable line with a few quiet out-there spots that presumably have a thin snowpack with a weak structure. Was it the increased southerly winds that tipped the balance for these triggers on Lewis and Millville Peaks? The warming temperatures affecting the stiffness of the slab? Or did they just find the right spot, a needle in a haystack of trigger points? We hope to have someone looking into it today...

Take home points - the last persistent slabs were triggered by skiers in shallow (<4' snow depth) snowpack areas on 28 December... and we've seen little additional snow and wind to affect the dormant weaknesses. Still, it is why, with poor structure noted in thinner shallow snowpack areas, that folks such as the snowmobilers on Lewis Peak, for example follow strict travel protocol such as putting only one person on the slope at a time and having "eyes on" your partner at all times. Thanks for the report fellas.

Additional Information

A cold Pacific storm is on our doorstep. For today, we'll have sustained southwesterly wind speeds in the 35-45mph range at a minimum. Gusts are expected into the 80s and 90s. Temps will be near freezing at 10,000', and the upper 20s at 8000'. The cold front crashes town by mid afternoon with the heaviest snowfall rates during and after frontal passage. Winds veer west northwesterly and lose steam. Temps plummet to the low single digits. I suspect that the mountains will squeeze 12-18" out of an inch of water by early Saturday. Next week mirrors the week we just had.

General Announcements

Go to http://www.backcountry.com/utah-avalanche-center to get tickets from our partners at Park City, Beaver Mountain, Canyons, Sundance, and Wolf Mountain. All proceeds benefit the Utah Avalanche Center.

If you trigger an avalanche in the backcountry - especially if you are adjacent to a ski area – please call the following teams to alert them to the slide and whether anyone is missing or not. Rescue teams can be exposed to significant hazard when responding to avalanches, and do not want to do so when unneeded. Thanks.

Salt Lake and Park City – Alta Central (801-742-2033), Canyons Resort Dispatch (435-615-3322)

Ogden – Snowbasin Patrol Dispatch (801-620-1017)

Powder Mountain Ski Patrol Dispatch (801-745-3773 ex 123)

Provo – Sundance Patrol Dispatch (801-223-4150)

Dawn Patrol Forecast Hotline, updated by 05:30: 888-999-4019 option 8.

Twitter Updates for your mobile phone - DETAILS

Daily observations are frequently posted by 10 pm each evening.

Subscribe to the daily avalanche advisory e-mail click HERE.

UDOT canyon closures UDOT at (801) 975-4838

Wasatch Powderbird Guides does daily updates about where they'll be operating on this blog http://powderbird.blogspot.com/ .

Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please participate in the creation of our own community avalanche advisory bysubmitting snow and avalanche conditions. You can also call us at 801-524-5304 or 800-662-4140, or email by clicking HERE

Donate to your favorite non-profit –The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center. The UAC depends on contributions from users like you to support our work.

For a print version of this advisory click HERE.

This advisory is produced by the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. It describes only general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist. Specific terrain and route finding decisions should always be based on skills learned in a field-based avalanche class

Next forecast >