Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Max Forgensi
Issued by Max Forgensi on
Wednesday morning, January 2, 2013

The Bottom Line for the La Sal Mountains will be an Avalanche Danger of LOW in most areas with areas of MODERATE for deep slabs at and above tree line on E-NE-N-NW aspects and for loose snow sluffs on W-SW-S aspects at and below treeline.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Weather and Snow

Wow. The mountains are on. The roads to all the trailheads have been plowed. Thank you San Juan County. LUNA volunteers went up on Wednesday and groomed some wide corduroy into Gold Basin and over Geyser Pass. Thank you Mark Weissinger and Ed Oak. Ski tracks are set up Pack Creek, towards Warner Lake, into Gold Basin and the Burro Pass area. Snowmobiles have been having fun up around La Sal Pass and Dark Canyon. All we need is some fat bikes and tracked motorcycles and we'd be in multi-winter-sport heaven.

With 44" (110 cm) of settled snow at the Gold Basin study plot and close to 80" (200 cm) falling in December alone, the backcountry skiing conditions have been blessed with good stability, decent coverage and cold smoke. No collapsing, cracking or recent avalanche activity was noted on Wednesday's tour and stability tests yielded hard compression tests and no propagation on extended column tests. Obviously, I did not spend my entire day digging in the snow...careful evaluation should be exercised by any touring party heading into avalanche terrain.

Our snow pack is still on the shallow side and cold night time temperature could still drive facet development, radiation from the sun will develop crusts on south and west aspects (especially below tree line) and the upper snow pack will be transforming into near surface facets on shady sides of the compass. For the next couple of days, the wind should not be a factor.

Although these weather conditions will start to change the snow slowly over time, remember that the biggest disturbance in the mountains will be you and your party. By all means, get out there and enjoy a special opportunity in southeast Utah, just remember to practice safe travel techniques and manage terrain wisely.

Recent Avalanches

Loose snow sluffs, some entraining some large real estate has protected many high alpine tours from NE-N-NW-West aspects in Gold Basin. If I didn't lock my keys in the vehicle which had the keys to the office, which had the cord to the camera, I would share pictures of some of Mother Natures best ski protection available. I guess your just going to have to go out and look at it yourself!

Ad
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

There are still large pieces of snow that have yet to have avalanches observed of any type making these locations suspect of faceted snow near the ground. The interface to this layer is still within one meter meaning a skier or snowmobilers stress could affect the interface. Best bet: ski where theres still signs of natural avalanche activity.

Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

As the days continue to slowly warm, so will the opportunity for loose snow to sluff. These types of avalanches will be more apt to occur on the sunny aspects of the compass.

Additional Information

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 23. Wind chill values as low as -10. East northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 10. Calm wind becoming east northeast around 5 mph in the evening.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 30. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 11. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east southeast in the evening.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 28.

General Announcements

The Friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center are have been an important partner to the forecast office in Moab for over 20 years.

Go to their website to donate. They help with purchasing weather instrumentation, provide field observers and upkeep 3 weather stations in the La Sal and Abajo Mountains. Thanks!

The Utah Avalanche Center-Moab will be holding a Basic Avalanche Awareness talk on Friday, January 18th at 6:30 pm at the Grand County Library. The following day, January 19th, there will be an avalanche rescue clinic at the Geyser Pass TH.

On February 1st through the 3rd, the UAC-Moab is hosting a Level I AIARE Avalanche Course. Interested? Call Max Forgensi at his office phone (435-636-3355) for more details and to sign up.