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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty for
Tuesday, January 1, 2013

A MODERATE danger is centered upon developing wind drifts along the highest terrain as well as the isolated and off chance of triggering a deeper persistent slab in steep, thinner snowpack areas. The wind drifts will be relegated to the higher, exposed open terrain; the rogue deeper persistent slabs along the periphery of the Cottonwood canyons. Don't let all the powder go to your head - ride one at a time, make a plan, and get out of the way at the bottom of the slope.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements

Just a couple slots left for our Snowbird Freeride Avalanche Summit, an avalanche and alpine skills seminar focused on steep lines, remote locations, and filming. Jan 6-8 2013. Details at http://utahavalanchecenter.org/2013-snowbird-freeride-avalanche-summit.

Weather and Snow

We live charmed lives. I remember an old friend - now long gone - would look at me, wide-and wild-eyed, and say, "Today will be an extraordinary day." And he would be right. Only later did I find out that he said that to everyone, everyday. And...he would be right. Happy New Year. Here's to our hopes and aspirations, family, friends, colleagues - both here and gone; mistakes made...and mistakes hopefully not made again. Enjoy the skiing and riding today, friends, it'll be extraordinary. Again.

Skies across the Wasatch are mostly cloudy and temps are in the low single digits, if not below zero. The northerly and northeasterly winds have picked up a bit since midnight and are blowing 20-25mph with gusts to 35. Southerly facing slopes are now sun damaged, but northerly aspects are nothing short of divine.

Recent Avalanches

Little activity from the backcountry yesterday other than some minor sluffing and some 6" deep, pockety old wind slabs in the highest terrain.

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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

These persistent slabs are becoming increasingly dormant and I expect to have a mostly Low danger with the coming week of high pressure. (Yes you read that correctly.) The odd, rogue mouse-trap can be found in thinner, shallower snowpack areas. These pockets are relegated to mid and upper elevation westerly to northerly to easterly facing slopes.

Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Plenty of snow to be blown around. A Moderate danger exists for old and developing wind drifts in the high lee terrain. Increasing north to northeasterly winds this morning will load steep south, perhaps southwest facing terrain. Keep an eye on the drifting if hunting for steep exposed terrain today. Shooting cracks are evidence of localized instability.

Avalanche Problem #3
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Some sluffing can be expected in the steepest terrain and will be a problem where consequences matter. They do, however, respond to careful slope cuts and terrain management. As high pressure builds for the forseeable future, the cold smoke will start to weaken and sluff more readily.

Additional Information

Mostly to partly cloudy skies will be accompanied by increasing north to northeasterly winds this morning. No, it's not a return to the Solstice wind event, just a bump in speeds along the ridgelines to 20-30mph with some gusts perhaps to 40 or so. Temps will rise to the low teens.

Two summers ago, I was with another climbing ranger and our conscious, but immobile lightning strike victim below the Owen chimney near the summit of the Grand Teton during that fateful day in July 2010 when 17 climbers on the Grand had been struck multiple times. The weather had improved enough for us to be inserted high on the mountain...but now more cells were building to the southwest. From the our vantage, however, we couldn't see what was coming. I radio'd down to the Upper Saddle to another colleague. "Jack, what's the spot forecast, man?" There was a long pause...and then a slow "Bub, it doesn't look good." And so it is with what looks to be a week to ten days or more of high pressure on the horizon.

General Announcements

Go to http://www.backcountry.com/utah-avalanche-center to get tickets from our partners at Beaver Mountain, Canyons, Sundance, and Wolf Mountain. All proceeds benefit the Utah Avalanche Center.

If you trigger an avalanche in the backcountry - especially if you are adjacent to a ski area – please call the following teams to alert them to the slide and whether anyone is missing or not. Rescue teams can be exposed to significant hazard when responding to avalanches, and do not want to do so when unneeded. Thanks.

Salt Lake and Park City – Alta Central (801-742-2033), Canyons Resort Dispatch (435-615-3322)

Ogden – Snowbasin Patrol Dispatch (801-620-1017)

Powder Mountain Ski Patrol Dispatch (801-745-3773 ex 123)

Provo – Sundance Patrol Dispatch (801-223-4150)

Dawn Patrol Forecast Hotline, updated by 05:30: 888-999-4019 option 8.

Twitter Updates for your mobile phone - DETAILS

Daily observations are frequently posted by 10 pm each evening.

Subscribe to the daily avalanche advisory e-mail click HERE.

UDOT canyon closures UDOT at (801) 975-4838

Wasatch Powderbird Guides does daily updates about where they'll be operating on this blog http://powderbird.blogspot.com/ .

Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please participate in the creation of our own community avalanche advisory bysubmitting snow and avalanche conditions. You can also call us at 801-524-5304 or 800-662-4140, or email by clicking HERE

Donate to your favorite non-profit –The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center. The UAC depends on contributions from users like you to support our work.

For a print version of this advisory click HERE.

This advisory is produced by the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. It describes only general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist. Specific terrain and route finding decisions should always be based on skills learned in a field-based avalanche class.

I will update this by 7:30am tomorrow morning.

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