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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Evelyn Lees
Issued by Evelyn Lees on
Saturday morning, December 29, 2012

Just because it’s a beautiful powder day and you’re having a great time with your friends, it doesn’t mean you can’t get caught in an avalanche.

The Ogden areas mountains have a generally MODERATE avalanche. Avoid shallow snowpack areas and rocky terrain, including slopes that slid earlier this year, where on steep slopes facing northwest through east there is a localized chance of triggering a deep slide on upper elevation slopes.

In all areas, watch for and avoid fresh drifts of wind-blown snow as the winds pick up along the higher ridgelines later this afternoon.

Remember, time is on your side – there are days of opportunity to get onto the steep slopes - start out with the acres of untracked low and moderate angle slopes, and give the snow more time to settle and strengthen.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements

Thanks so much to all those who have donate to the UAC this year! Most of our funding comes from donations and events and your support keeps the forecasts and education going. If you have not yet made a 2012 contribution, you have a few more days...

There is still space available for the Snowbird Freeride Avalanche Summit, an avalanche skills class aimed at Big Mtn Freeriders, aimed at addressing safety issues related to steep lines, remote locations, and filming. Jan 6-8 2012. Details at http://utahavalanchecenter.org/2013-snowbird-freeride-avalanche-summit.

Weather and Snow

5 days of storms have left 2 to 3 feet of top quality powder in the northern Utah mountains - evenly draped on all aspects over a supportable base, with just enough settlement that low to moderate angle slopes ride well. With skies finally clearing, it’s intensely beautiful, and riding, snowshoeing and snowmobiling conditions are about as good as it gets. Temperatures are in the single digits to mid-teens, and the southerly winds are very light, with only a few of the highest peaks averaging even 15 mph.

Recent Avalanches

There were 5 human triggered avalanches reported yesterday.

  • Explosive control work in the Ogden area mountains released a large hard slab along the ridgeline, failing on the December rain crust.

Cottonwoods:

  • 3 were skier/boarder released new snow soft slabs, 1-2 feet deep, less than 100' wide. (Square Top, Lake Mary’s Chutes and Claytons)
  • 2 slides were remotely triggered – the largest on Gobblers - 2' x 175', new snow sliding on a hard, old wind slab, and an intentionally triggered slide in Alexander Chutes – 18” deep by 50’ wide, running on old faceted snow near the ground, this slope has probably slid before.

Gobblers:

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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

There are still a few monsters in the basement – the most dangerous slide a person could trigger today would be on a mid-pack weakness (crusts and facets) or the ground. These are the slides you can trigger from a distance, that may break out above you and where tracks on a slope are not a definitive sign of stability. Shallow Snowpack Areas are where these weak layers are most pronounced, and where the weight of a person or machine can be felt through the snow by the weak layer. Collapsing or being able to push your ski pole in right to the ground are not good signs.

Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

On most slopes, the new snow will be fairly well behaved this morning, with predictable human triggered sluffs and perhaps a new snow soft slab on steep slopes. But even a soft snow avalanche can travel fast, and be dangerous if you are caught and carried into trees or buried in a gully.

However, all this low density snow is just waiting for a breeze to blow it around. The southerly winds will gradually increase along the ridge lines as the day goes on, and the drifts will be most wide spread on the northerly facing slopes. Avoid these fresh, soft drifts on steep slopes.

Additional Information

A gorgeous day – clear to partly cloudy skies, with temperatures warming into the mid-20s at 8,000’, and the mid-teens along the ridgelines. The southerly winds will gradually increase along the highest ridgelines, into with averages in the 15 to 20 mph range and gusts to 30 this afternoon. A few flurries with a trace of snow possible tonight, followed by several day of cool temperatures and light winds.

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