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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Max Forgensi
Issued by Max Forgensi for
Friday, December 28, 2012

The Bottom Line for Saturday will be an Avalanche Danger of Moderate for the La Sal and Abajo Mountains for loose snow avalanche activity in the afternoon and persistent slabs lingering on the shady sides of slopes and ridges. Cross Loading is also a concern for Saturday.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements

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Weather and Snow

The Loop Road is plowed, while the roads to the Geyser Pass TH, Upper Two Mile access and Blue Mountain Ski area can be reached with 4WD and/or chains.

LUNA will be up on Saturday to groom the tracks. The corduroy should be in by late morning.

Incredible skiing conditions will be found on all aspects on Saturday. The most recent storm dropped over 12" of snow into Gold Basin where 54" (135 cm) of snow has piled up with great settlement. The Gold Basin Study Plot has seen over six feet of snow (182 cm) for the month of December.

Consistent snow events have given us a good base, but beware. Persistent slabs are still out there on the shady side of the mountains. There's some good skiing to enjoy, please use extra caution and evaluation when heading up above tree line.

Recent Avalanches

Yesterday's tour was pretty decent. Good visibility, a few mechanical breakdowns and troubleshooting the Gold Basin Weather Station. Looks like the station has an antenna issue.

No reports from all those backcountry skiers out the past couple of days. Remember, if you are heading up, we need your observations! Please post them on the UAC website under the DETAILED INFO Menu.

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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Loose snow avalanches, or sluffs, will begin to occur by mid-afternoon on sunny sides of the mountains. These should be very manageable to experienced backcountry travelers. The biggest concern would be pushing you into a place or an obstacle you really didn't want to be.

Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Persistent slabs, failing on the early season faceted layer is still a concern across the La Sal and Abajo Mountain range. These persistent slabs seem to be pulling out after a smaller wind slab event from ridges trigger them. I have not seen widespread activity but enough to give this problem merit in areas that have not been cleaned out from avalanches this season.

Avalanche Problem #3
Deep Slab
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

There are feet of snow available for transport. The wind slabs formed by the Christmas Eve storm now has quite a bit of fluff on them, even on the most exposed ridges which is making for some wonderful skiing opportunities. The current wind slabs distributed across the range will be stubborn to trigger.

The Wind Slab Avalanche Problem is one that needs to stay on the radar when then next wind event occurs. The mountains may see a widespread avalanche cycle without any new snow amounts.

Additional Information

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 30. South wind 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. South wind 10 to 15 mph.

Sunday: A 40 percent chance of snow, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon.

Sunday Night: Snow likely, mainly after 8pm. Cloudy, with a low around 9. South southwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 19. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

General Announcements

The Friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center are have been an important partner to the forecast office in Moab for over 20 years.

Go to their website to donate. They help with purchasing weather instrumentation, provide field observers and upkeep 3 weather stations in the La Sal and Abajo Mountains. Thanks!

The Utah Avalanche Center-Moab will be holding a Basic Avalanche Awareness talk on Friday, January 18th at 6:30 pm at the Grand County Library. The following day, January 19th, there will be an avalanche rescue clinic at the Geyser Pass TH.

On February 1st through the 3rd, the UAC-Moab is hosting a Level I AIARE Avalanche Course. Interested? Call Max Forgensi at his office phone (435-636-3355) for more details and to sign up.

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