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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Max Forgensi
Issued by Max Forgensi on
Thursday morning, December 27, 2012

The Bottom Line for today will be an Avalanche Danger of Considerable on steep, wind loaded slopes greater than 34 degrees on NW-N-NE-E-SE slopes throughout the La Sal Range. These slopes hold very tender wind slabs easily triggered by a back country traveller.

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Moderate
Considerable
High
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Special Announcements

The Utah Avalanche Center-Moab is on Facebook! Become a friend of UtahAvalancheCenterMoab!

Weather and Snow

Wow. December 2012 continues to produce for the La Sal Mountains. Another 8" fell at the Geyser Pass Trailhead overnight for total snow depth of 38" at 9,600' and close to 60" in Gold Basin. The southeast Utah area is finally at average for Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) for the water year which starts October 1st. In December alone, we have received well over 60" in Gold Basin.

This backcountry skiing conditions are absolutely phenomenal! Knee deep plus below tree line while above tree line, the winds have been at work.

Grand County plowed the Loop Road, San Juan County plowed the Geyser Pass and Upper Two Mile Road and LUNA (Thanks Matt!) groomed the entire Gold Basin/Geyser Pass area...now with an additional cover of snow on it. Access is back and you will not be dissapointed.

Unfortunately, the Abajos were left out of the recent storm. Only 21" sits at the Camp Jackson SNOTEL.

Recent Avalanches

No reports yet, but if you are heading up, we need your observations! Please post them on the UAC website under the DETAILED INFO Menu.

Yesterday's tour was into the teeth of Old Man Winter, my favorite weather event of heavy snow and blow. We did observe some shooting cracks at tree line in wind loaded terrain and HUGE collapses that sounded and felt like an earthquake. Instabilities are out there.

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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

One to two foot wind deposits average and up to six feet deep were observed on leeward sides of slopes and ridges. These 1F hardness slabs are overlying very light density snow and are sensitive to a humans stress. These wind slabs may peel back farther on ridges than expected. Be careful.

Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Deep slab instabilities will be difficult to trigger. This lower risk/ high consequence variety of large destructive avalanche is possible in areas where early season snow has yet to produce an avalanche. Talking Mountain Cirque, Upper Horse Creek, Dark Canyon, Beaver Basin could be areas these types of slides may occur.

Additional Information

Today: Snow. High near 19. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Tonight: Snow likely, mainly before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 9. West northwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Friday: A 40 percent chance of snow, mainly before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 20. North wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west northwest in the afternoon.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 10. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming south southeast after midnight.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 24. South southwest wind 10 to 15 mph.

General Announcements

The Friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center are have been an important partner to the forecast office in Moab for over 20 years.

Go to their website to donate. They help with purchasing weather instrumentation, provide field observers and upkeep 3 weather stations in the La Sal and Abajo Mountains. Thanks!

The Utah Avalanche Center-Moab will be holding a Basic Avalanche Awareness talk on Friday, January 18th at 6:30 pm at the Grand County Library. The following day, January 19th, there will be an avalanche rescue clinic at the Geyser Pass TH.

On February 1st through the 3rd, the UAC-Moab is hosting a Level I AIARE Avalanche Course. Interested? Call Max Forgensi at his office phone (435-636-3355) for more details and to sign up.

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