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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Max Forgensi
Issued by Max Forgensi for
Monday, December 24, 2012

The BOTTOM LINE for Christmas Day will be an Avalanche Danger of Considerable on steep slopes greater than 32 degrees on all points of the compass. Natural avalanche activity is possible and human triggered avalanche are likely. Storm snow of more than 20" and strong winds for over 12 hours are contributing factors.

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Special Avalanche Bulletin

Merry Christmas Southeast Utah! For those who would like to try out there new snowmobiles or skis, Christmas in the backcountry will be a day to stay very conservative. A significant amount of snow fell over the past 24 hours with plenty of wind and high relative humidities and transport and deposit snow on leeward sides of slopes and ridges on all points of the compass.

This new storm snow will be very tender and dangerous. The storm has left over 20" at the Geyser Pass Winter TH. The higher you go, the deeper it will get.

Weather and Snow

The Moab and Grand Valley just received a Christmas Eve wallop of snow. The low pressure system cranked in from the south Monday morning with winds veering to the northwest by the evening dropping 6" in Moab, 20" at the Geyser Pass Trailhead and much more up in Gold Basin. Grand Mesa reported over 26" of 20:1 snow. Winds are out of the northeast as of 5:00 a.m.

1.4" of H20 has been reported at the Geyser Pass Winter TH with 20" of new snow... 7% powder. This type of widespread snow event is likely to happen again. The jet stream is forecasted to send another round of moisture through the region, overrunning the cold air in place and producing more snow for the mountains by Wednesday afternoon.

The first challenge will be getting to the mountains. Powder skiing on the red rocks has high potential and cross country skiing in Arches is a rare opportunity, this may be the safest bet because both Grand and San Juan Counties have their plows full of snow. If you do head up, be prepared for anything and thanks for breaking trail!

The next forecast will be out on Thursday with Wednesday as a tour day for the UAC-Moab.

Recent Avalanches

No reports yet, but if you are heading up, we need your observations! Please post them on the UAC website under the DETAILED INFO Menu

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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Winds blew out of the South for 12 plus hours with winds averaging over 20 mph before veering to the west, then west-northwest to the current northwest direction. The winds have been strong enough to transport snow and high relative humidities is keeping the snow very local. Wind slabs are tender during or just after (24 hrs) a storm. Traveling on ridgelines, you will either see recent avalanche activity or trigger one from your party.

Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Some large avalanche occurred during the last storm, notably Tuk No the North Face of Tuk and Pre-Laurel Ridge. There is quite a bit of terrain loaded with early season instabilities. Hopefully this storm has cleaned out some of the finer lines.

Please send your observations!

Additional Information

Christmas Day: A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly before 7am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 21. North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south southeast in the afternoon.

Tonight: A 20 percent chance of snow after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14. South wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight.

Wednesday: Snow, mainly after 10am. High near 25. Breezy, with a south wind 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Wednesday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 12. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 15 to 20 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Thursday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 20. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

General Announcements

The Friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center are have been an important partner to the forecast office in Moab for over 20 years.

Go to their website to donate. They help with purchasing weather instrumentation, provide field observers and upkeep 3 weather stations in the La Sal and Abajo Mountains. Thanks!

The Utah Avalanche Center-Moab will be holding a Basic Avalanche Awareness talk on Friday, January 18th at 6:30 pm at the Grand County Library. The following day, January 19th, there will be an avalanche rescue clinic at the Geyser Pass TH.

On February 1st through the 3rd, the UAC-Moab is hosting a Level I AIARE Avalanche Course. Interested? Call Max Forgensi at his office phone (435-636-3355) for more details and to sign up.

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